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Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

My feeling is that fluking a second (or third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, or fourteenth) red isn't too different from a fluke positional shot, which I've already decided would be too complicated to include, and may throw off the other data if I try. Still it's a tricky one, as that kind of luck can really change a frame.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Sauce321

You can have a slight variation of luck (flukes), depends on the style of play.

Then you have the same variation for lucky safety shots.

At the end, on the long run, at pro level, luck is insignificant.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Dan-cat

Sauce321 wrote:You can have a slight variation of luck (flukes), depends on the style of play.

Then you have the same variation for lucky safety shots.

At the end, on the long run, at pro level, luck is insignificant.


And yet, one fluke can win a match, and in some cases a title. So how can it be insignificant?

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Sauce321

Dan-cat wrote:
Sauce321 wrote:You can have a slight variation of luck (flukes), depends on the style of play.

Then you have the same variation for lucky safety shots.

At the end, on the long run, at pro level, luck is insignificant.


And yet, one fluke can win a match, and in some cases a title. So how can it be insignificant?


True, but that's short term luck. A tier-2 player can sometimes win a ranking event (good draw, good form atm, a few flukes, short matches,...)

But at the end this player will retire with 1 ranking event, and luck has nothing to do about it.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

SnookerFan wrote:So, have we decided who the luckiest player of the 2020 Tour Championship was?


Has to be Trump, just as we were about to uncover how his game is utterly dependent on flukes, the things goes and get cancelled. A coincidence? How convenient!
Last edited by McManusFan on 24 Apr 2020, edited 1 time in total.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Holden Chinaski

McManusFan wrote:
SnookerFan wrote:So, have we decided who the luckiest player of the 2020 Tour Championship was?


Has to be Trump, just as we were about to uncover how his game is utterly dependent on flukes, the things goes and get cancels. A coincidence? How convenient!

:hatoff:

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby SnookerFan

McManusFan wrote:
SnookerFan wrote:So, have we decided who the luckiest player of the 2020 Tour Championship was?


Has to be Trump, just as we were about to uncover how his game is utterly dependent on flukes, the things goes and get cancelled. A coincidence? How convenient!


rofl

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

I only counted one fluke in the whole Robbo vs Mags match.

Robertson vs Maguire
Frame 6 Robertson flukes red, score after fluke 1-5

Currently Robertson is simultaneously the most lucky person in the tournament and the only one eliminated.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby SnookerFan

McManusFan wrote:I only counted one fluke in the whole Robbo vs Mags match.

Robertson vs Maguire
Frame 6 Robertson flukes red, score after fluke 1-5

Currently Robertson is simultaneously the most lucky person in the tournament and the only one eliminated.


You'll have more to do today.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

SnookerFan wrote:
McManusFan wrote:I only counted one fluke in the whole Robbo vs Mags match.

Robertson vs Maguire
Frame 6 Robertson flukes red, score after fluke 1-5

Currently Robertson is simultaneously the most lucky person in the tournament and the only one eliminated.


You'll have more to do today.


I suspect it'll be easier to count Judd's shots that aren't flukes.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Badsnookerplayer

McManusFan wrote:
SnookerFan wrote:
McManusFan wrote:I only counted one fluke in the whole Robbo vs Mags match.

Robertson vs Maguire
Frame 6 Robertson flukes red, score after fluke 1-5

Currently Robertson is simultaneously the most lucky person in the tournament and the only one eliminated.


You'll have more to do today.


I suspect it'll be easier to count Judd's shots that aren't flukes.

rofl
Do you want me to do the evening session?

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

Badsnookerplayer wrote:
McManusFan wrote:
SnookerFan wrote:
McManusFan wrote:I only counted one fluke in the whole Robbo vs Mags match.

Robertson vs Maguire
Frame 6 Robertson flukes red, score after fluke 1-5

Currently Robertson is simultaneously the most lucky person in the tournament and the only one eliminated.


You'll have more to do today.


I suspect it'll be easier to count Judd's shots that aren't flukes.

rofl
Do you want me to do the evening session?


That'd be great, although as a bit of a Higgins fan I'll be watching the second session on catchup tomorrow anyway.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Badsnookerplayer

McManusFan wrote:
Badsnookerplayer wrote:
McManusFan wrote:
SnookerFan wrote:
McManusFan wrote:I only counted one fluke in the whole Robbo vs Mags match.

Robertson vs Maguire
Frame 6 Robertson flukes red, score after fluke 1-5

Currently Robertson is simultaneously the most lucky person in the tournament and the only one eliminated.


You'll have more to do today.


I suspect it'll be easier to count Judd's shots that aren't flukes.

rofl
Do you want me to do the evening session?


That'd be great, although as a bit of a Higgins fan I'll be watching the second session on catchup tomorrow anyway.

You can check my data <ok>

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

Trump vs Higgins flukes:

Frame 1
Trump 52-4 red (hit the wrong red first, possibly contentious)
Frame 6
Higgins 27-69 red (frame winning)
Frame 7
Trump 35-52 yellow (unwanted fluke)
Frame 12
Higgins 39-13 red (frame winning)

Total fluke standings thus far (flukes/frame):
Roberston* 1/14
Higgins* 2/13
Trump 2/13

*final fluke count

Thanks to BSP for counting assistance.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

Selby vs Yan Flukes:

Frame 9
Yan 71-31 Red (unwanted)
Selby 73-34 Yellow (won frame)

Frame 12
Selby 71-64 Black (respotted black)

Total fluke standings thus far (flukes/frame):
Roberston* 1/14
Higgins* 2/13
Trump 2/13
Yan* 1/15
Selby 2/15

*final fluke count

Higgins and Trump are currently tied for most fluked pots per frame.

Thanks as always to BSP for counting assistance.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

Juddernaut88 wrote:Selby fluke on the black yesterday was crazy.


Yeah, Selby sounded pretty sheepish about it in the interview. Couple that with Yan's only 'fluke' being one that ended up loosing him the frame, and the match could easily have gone much closer.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

Allen vs Murphy Flukes

Frame 8
Murphy 28-58 Red (final red, won frame)

Frame 16
Murhpy 47-1 Red (no consequence)

Frame 17
Allen 1-0 Red (winning chance in decider)

Total fluke standings thus far (flukes/frame):
Roberston* 1/14
Higgins* 2/13
Trump 2/13
Yan* 1/15
Selby 2/15
Murphy* 2/17
Allen 1/17

*final fluke count

Higgins and Trump are currently tied for most fluked pots per frame. They are also officially the flukiest players of the quarter finals.

Thanks as always to BSP for counting assistance.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Juddernaut88

Realistically Selby and Mark Allen have been the luckiest. Selby fluked black in a re-spotted black which should count as double. Mark Allen has a huge fluke in a deciding frame which he took advantage of.
One of Judds flukes against Higgins was an unwanted one which left him in an awkward position.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby SnookerEd25

Juddernaut88 wrote:Realistically Selby and Mark Allen have been the luckiest. Selby fluked black in a re-spotted black which should count as double. Mark Allen has a huge fluke in a deciding frame which he took advantage of.
One of Judds flukes against Higgins was an unwanted one which left him in an awkward position.


I kind of agree about Mark Allen, but it was the first red at 0-0; he still had an awful lot to do & deserves respect for doing it.

For Murphy to make a bitchy comment about ‘fluking frame ball’ was a bit childish I thought (something I think about Shaun more than most other players)

Since when could the first red be construed as frame ball?

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby SnookerFan

HappyCamper wrote:https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3_TvpBwSZDM



I had a dream that I met Kylie Minogue a few months ago. We decided to go for a pint, then when we were in the pub she decided to get everybody singing; "I should be so lucky."