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BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Skullman

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Monday16th of February ~ Sunday 22nd of February at the Motorpoint Arena, Cardiff

One last match and its another battle of age v youth. On one side we have Ben Woollaton, who knocked out home favourite Mark Williams, looking for his first rankng title and his big breakthrough.

On the other we have John Higgins,four times world champion and aiming to be the first man to hold this title four times, edging him ahead of Stephen Hendry and Ronnie O'Sullivan.

Experience favours Higgins, but is it time for a new player to make his mark?

DRAW

ORDER OF PLAY

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Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby TheRocket

Can't wait!

It'll be a great final and it will be interesting to see how John Higgins will cope with an opponent, who plays very well under pressure and isn't frightened to get over the finishing line.

John has to play his very best game to have a decent against the mental warrior Woollaston.

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Andre147

TheRocket wrote:Can't wait!

It'll be a great final and it will be interesting to see how John Higgins will cope with an opponent, who plays very well under pressure and isn't frightened to get over the finishing line.

John has to play his very best game to have a decent against the mental warrior Woollaston.


Talk about irony... <laugh>

If Ben were to win it though, it would be one of the greatest upsets ever in Snooker I think.

I'll be surprised if Ben wins 5 frames to be honest.

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby AC or LT?

TheRocket wrote:Can't wait!

It'll be a great final and it will be interesting to see how John Higgins will cope with an opponent, who plays very well under pressure and isn't frightened to get over the finishing line.

John has to play his very best game to have a decent against the mental warrior Woollaston.


pmsl

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Andre147

AC or LT? wrote:
TheRocket wrote:Can't wait!

It'll be a great final and it will be interesting to see how John Higgins will cope with an opponent, who plays very well under pressure and isn't frightened to get over the finishing line.

John has to play his very best game to have a decent against the mental warrior Woollaston.


pmsl


If you think he was being serious and you can't see the irony then it's you who pmsl

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby TheRocket

Andre147 wrote:
TheRocket wrote:Can't wait!

It'll be a great final and it will be interesting to see how John Higgins will cope with an opponent, who plays very well under pressure and isn't frightened to get over the finishing line.

John has to play his very best game to have a decent against the mental warrior Woollaston.


Talk about irony... <laugh>

If Ben were to win it though, it would be one of the greatest upsets ever in Snooker I think.

I'll be surprised if Ben wins 5 frames to be honest.


I really hope, its gonna be a good final mate but I think, we all agree here that after we saw the semi final line up, Higgins-Woollaston was by far the worse final line up.

It's a real anti-climax after knowing what for great other options we could have. Just can't look forward to this.

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Cloud Strife

Even if Ben has the ability and the talent to win, I'm afraid his brain will not allow him to win. I still remember that time he lost 5-4 to Ding Junhui after leading 4-0.

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Skullman

Missed the second semi. Unfortunate that MJW didn't win, but will have to make do. Not seeing Higgins lose, because even if he plays badly, I don't think Ben will take advantage.

Maybe it will be high quality?

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby McChazzz

Truly surprised at all the people completely writing off Woollaston's chances here. He's beaten Mark Davis, Mark Allen, Ali Carter and Mark Williams en route - would dispatching Higgins really be such a feat above those?

Bookmakers rate him about a 2/1 chance. If you'd be truly astounded by a Woollaston win tomorrow, go roll a fair six-sided die. I hope you're truly astounded if it comes up five or six...

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Andre147

McChazzz wrote:Truly surprised at all the people completely writing off Woollaston's chances here. He's beaten Mark Davis, Mark Allen, Ali Carter and Mark Williams en route - would dispatching Higgins really be such a feat above those?

Bookmakers rate him about a 2/1 chance. If you'd be truly astounded by a Woollaston win tomorrow, go roll a fair six-sided die. I hope you're truly astounded if it comes up five or six...


We are all completely writting Woollaston's chances off simply because that's the reality mate. Beating those players you mentioned means nothing a Final such as this against such an experienced opponent as Higgins.

A Final is a diferent ball game mate, and Woolaston didnt play that well to beat MJW, he chocked badly, he was a tad lucky MJW didnt take advanatge of his chokes in the decider.

I'm not saying it's impossible, Ding Junhui for instance as a teenager beat experienced Hendry in the 2005 China Open Final. But Woollaston is no Ding, and him beating Higgins here would have to be regarded as one of the biggest upsets of all time in Snooker.

And the dice example isn't really a good one on this case pmsl

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Cloud Strife

Andre147 wrote:
McChazzz wrote:Truly surprised at all the people completely writing off Woollaston's chances here. He's beaten Mark Davis, Mark Allen, Ali Carter and Mark Williams en route - would dispatching Higgins really be such a feat above those?

Bookmakers rate him about a 2/1 chance. If you'd be truly astounded by a Woollaston win tomorrow, go roll a fair six-sided die. I hope you're truly astounded if it comes up five or six...


We are all completely writting Woollaston's chances off simply because that's the reality mate. Beating those players you mentioned means nothing a Final such as this against such an experienced opponent as Higgins.

A Final is a diferent ball game mate, and Woolaston didnt play that well to beat MJW, he chocked badly, he was a tad lucky MJW didnt take advanatge of his chokes in the decider.

I'm not saying it's impossible, Ding Junhui for instance as a teenager beat experienced Hendry in the 2005 China Open Final. But Woollaston is no Ding, and him beating Higgins here would have to be regarded as one of the biggest upsets of all time in Snooker.

And the dice example isn't really a good one on this case pmsl


Yeah, I agree. The dice analogy is stupid because a dice is not mentally weak and won't choke nearing the finish line. <ok>

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby McChazzz

Ok, as many points as I can make:

1) "Beating those players means nothing" - no, it definitely means something. It may not mean much, but it means that we're dealing with a player who is capable of beating top sixteen opposition. This isn't Lee Page in the final, this is a player slowly approaching the upper echelons of the game.

2) "A final is a different ball game" - Absolutely, and I wouldn't dispute that. Then again, a one table ranking semi-final was also meant to be breaking new ground for Woollaston, and he seemed to cope with that ok tonight. At the end of the day, it's still just snooker, albeit over more frames and with more pressure.

3) "Woollaston didn't play that well to beat MJW, he choked badly, he was a tad lucky MJW didn't take advantage of his chokes in the decider." - You and I must have been watching different matches, my friend! He made five 50+ breaks (strong scoring from anyone in a best of eleven), potted a fantastic green to go 2-0 up, and responded to losing two frames after the interval with two of his own to go 5-3 up. Yes, pressure told as he approached the finishing line, but he still won. He really only gave MJW one clear chance in the decider, and when MJW choked straight back (because hey, experienced players feel pressure too!), he closed it out with a sixty break.

4) "...him beating Higgins here would have to be regarded as one of the biggest upsets of all time in snooker." - No it wouldn't. Based on bookmakers odds, it would barely make the top fifty upsets this season! Just because the setting is a final doesn't make it astronomically more unlikely that Woollaston will win. It makes it more unlikely, but I'm saying everyone in this thread is wildly over-estimating how much so.

5) "Most of those opponents were over best of 7, while best of 17 is [a] completely different game" - It's different, but not completely so. Higgins' win probability has been set at 67%, while in a best of seven it would be about 60%. It's a difference, but it's not 99.99% as seems to be the general feeling! If you can beat top players in best of seven, you won't be far off beating them in a best of nine, and so on. He just beat a top player in a best of eleven - why is doing it in a Bo17 so different?

6) Not a lot of love for the die analogy, but I'm just quoting the odds; if you disagree with me, Coral out there will take your money at 8/15, etc etc. To say "a die is not mentally weak" wildly misses the point (and where was this mental weakness tonight?) - it's a way of comparing something you're familiar with the odds of (rolling a large number on a die) with something you all seem to have a poor grasp of the odds of (Ben's winning chances).

Just for fun, here's how I see the outcomes of that fictional die roll...

1 - Higgins comes out in the same form he showed early against Brecel, blitzes him early with power scoring and trademark steals, and Woollaston never recovers. Higgins wins 9-2 or 9-3, and everyone in this thread pats each other on the back, telling me how wrong I was.

2 - Higgins is more like the player in his match against Maguire, but Woollaston is a shadow of his previous performances and trails 6-2/7-1 going into the evening session without making a break over 30. With the pressure off he adds some respectability to the scoreline, but loses 9-4 or 9-5. Everyone in this thread pats each other on the back, telling me how wrong I was.

3 - Both players play roughly to their average strength, with Higgins being the better player and doing enough to win 9-6 or 9-7. Everyone in this thread pats each other on the back, telling me how wrong I was and making pains to point out that even if it had got close, Woollaston couldn't have won due to Higgins' experience/his mental weakness, etc.

4 - Both players play roughly to their average strength, but Woollaston holds a slender lead with just a few frames to go before losing tragically in a decider after numerous twitches. Everyone in this thread pats each other on the back and offers me more advice on how a die cannot see the winning line.

5 - Both players play roughly to their average strength, but Woollaston gets an early lead and doesn't relinquish it, winning either 9-7 or 9-8. Everyone in this thread bemoans how lucky Woollaston was, pointing out every Higgins miss (and ignoring that you only have to play better than the opponent that shows up) and saying how he should really retire as to lose to this guy is a disgrace.

6 - Higgins looks like the player who hadn't made a semifinal for ages, missing simple balls and playing loose safety, while Woollaston looks like the player who knocked out four top twenty players en route to the final (and who Carter called "unplayable for three frames"). Woollaston wins 9-5, and everyone says that such a freak result could never have been foreseen, just like Murphy 10-2 Robertson in the Masters final.

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Andre147

You really went through all that trouble just to make us think Ben's odds of winning are more favourable? rofl <doh>

Just one thing to say, that last bit you mentioned, Ben is nowhere near in Murphy's class, so a result like that would never happen.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love if Ben won this title, but his chances of doing so are as good as Jimmy White winning the World Champs rofl

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Skullman

Just for the record, I'm not saying Ben Woollaston has no chance like others in the thread and I'd like a close final. I just think best of 17 is different to best of 17 because of psychology. There's a mid session interval every session for the occasion to get to Ben as well as several hours in between sessions. Also, if he's hit a purple patch of form, he's more unlikely to sustain over a two session match than a best of 7 sprint.

Plus, there's the fact I think Higgins plays better over long matches and is more likely to up his game when behind.

Can't speak for Ben choking as I didn't see the match, and considering he didn't let MJW pot a ball in the decider. Plus Higgins didn't exactly take his final frame against Luca in one...

PS The dice scenarios were amusing.

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby dexterdan7

Seriously, i think the final is pretty boring and dull. and i expect MJW vs John Higgins or Mark vs Luca, or Ben vs Luca. The final is so weird now.

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Roland

Ok moderators, 24 hour bans for every disrespectful comment slagging off either Ben or Higgins today. If you don't want to watch the final then don't watch it but don't come here to tourist the players off who have rightfully reached the final.

:santa:

I'm very happy for Ben, he's a great lad and always has a smile on his face and he's facing his hero in his first major ranking final. He's already won a PTC event and has recently made his first competitive 147 and he's a very good player. OK he's second favourite today because the Higgins who beat Luca was the Higgins of a few years ago and the Higgins of a few years ago would beat every single player in snooker history in a ranking final including Ronnie, so there is no shame in losing and in many ways this may lift the pressure off Ben a little bit and allow him to play, if Higgins lets him.

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby AC or LT?

Andre147 wrote:
AC or LT? wrote:
TheRocket wrote:Can't wait!

It'll be a great final and it will be interesting to see how John Higgins will cope with an opponent, who plays very well under pressure and isn't frightened to get over the finishing line.

John has to play his very best game to have a decent against the mental warrior Woollaston.


pmsl


If you think he was being serious and you can't see the irony then it's you who pmsl


Of course I know it wasn't serious, that's why it was so funny.

In all seriousness Woollaston is obviously not the favourite going into todays match but he can still cause the upset.

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Snooker Overdrive

So it's John Higgins v Ben Woollaston in the final.

In the year 2011 a convincing John Higgins win would be a certainty. But it's 2015 and John's consistency is pretty much completely gone and that gives Ben a slight chance. I disagree that Ben winning would be one of the biggest shocks in snooker history. I mean come on guys, Walden beating Ronnie in the Shanghai Masters in 2009 seemed even more unlikely back then.

But despite all that I fully expect a Higgins win today, he's so good at the latter stages of tournaments and he will put everything he has in this final. Also Ben looked very wobbly yesterday and was lucky MJW couldn't take his chances well enough.

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby hendry_fan

I Hardly saw any of the match between Woolie and Williams,but Congrats on Woolie for beating him yesterday and commecing to the final.


MJW must been gutted,especially since he was only 1 frame away from reaching the final.




I wrote earlier that along with the many weapons Higgins has,there,s one that takes years to get which players like Brecel,woolie and many more don,t yet have and thats EXPERIENCE.

Even though he,s gotten to yet another final,he did,nt play brilliant every match he played,he,s gotten through to this final by determination,with bouts of his A and B game along with the bags of experience he has.


In his game against Brecel yesterday,he played close to his vintage stuff,would be brilliant if he could produce that kind of form again today,but even if he can,t reproduce it today,the cards are definatley on his side.



Of course Woolie is the underdog,but it does,nt mean to say he does,nt have a chance,we,ve witnessed countless of times before,anything can happen in snooker.
Yesterdays match was just one of thousands in which the favourite lost to the underdog,i,m sure that most thought MJW would win,but he did,nt.




Come on John,it,s been a while in coming but it,s time for another bit o silverware,who knows,if he were to indeed go on and win this,it might inspire him to work even harder and he might become a real rival again.




:happy: COME ON JOHN!!. :happy:

Re: BetVictor Welsh Open Final Discussion !!!

Postby Clara8633

AC or LT? wrote:
Clara8633 wrote:I'd love to see Woollaston beat Higgins.


I'd love to win the lottery.
I'd love to have the mona lisa in my living room.
I'd love to see Ray Reardon win this years world championship.

Sorry I thought we were naming things we'd love to happen but are impossible.

AC or LT? wrote:In all seriousness Woollaston is obviously not the favourite going into todays match but he can still cause the upset.


pmsl