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Tour Survival via European Order of Merit

Postby roy142857

Great assessment of this by Matt at Pro Snooker blog - http://www.prosnookerblog.com/2014/02/0 ... -round-up/

A player-by-player summary of the players involved follows -

Gerard Greene and Sam Baird are in the end of season top 64 as it stands, but if they fell out they've guaranteed themselves survival were they to slip up.

Robbie Williams, Scott Donaldson, Luca Brecel and Ian Burns are outside the end of season top 64 but are all within striking distance of getting into the top 64, but if they fail to do so, are pretty much guaranteed a place via the Order of Merit.

Joel Walker's unlikely to make the Top 64 by the end of the season, but has guaranteed himself a place via the Order of Merit.

Almost the same for Michael Wasley as Joel Walker - not quite a guaranteed place, but it would take Greene and Baird falling out of the Top 64, and all of Williams, Donaldson, Brecel and Burns not getting in, PLUS a massive loss of form by a player further up the rankings who features on the Order of Merit - Jimmy Robertson or Jamie Jones - for him to miss out.

Barry Pinches looks oh-so-close to being safe, it would take Greene and Baird falling out of the Top 64, and none of Williams, Donaldson, Brecel and Burns getting in for him to miss out (from now on I'm ignoring the possible 'massive loss of form' of Jimmy Robertson, Jamie Jones and Pankaj Advani - the last named being below Wasley but above Pinches on the Order of Merit).

David Grace, as the last player currently 'in', obviously has reason to be nervous - he'd lose his spot if Greene OR Baird fell out and none of Williams, Donaldson, Brecel and Burns made it into the Top 64, or if both fell out and two of those four players didn't make it in.

Essentially, players further down the list need Greene and Baird to stay in the Top 64 whilst as many as possible of Williams, Donaldson, Brecel and Burns work their way in. There's certainly just enough players in the lower reaches of the Top 64 who either don't have Order of Merit protection (say Jimmy White and Dave Harold), or don't need it because they're on the first year of a two year card (Gary Wilson and David Morris), that four players still could get lucky and claim a place in descending order of likelihood, Tony Drago , Martin O'Donnell, Mike Dunn and Zhāng Āndá .

Re: Tour Survival via European Order of Merit

Postby SteveJJ

David Morris now finds himself out of the top 64 provisionally - not that that matters this season.

With it being so close and with only 8 guaranteed spots via QSchool, I wonder whether there has been an increase in entrants for Asian Tour 4 from those 55ish down.

Re: Tour Survival via European Order of Merit

Postby roy142857

SteveJJ wrote:David Morris now finds himself out of the top 64 provisionally - not that that matters this season.


He's 65th, one win anywhere away from overtaking 63rd placed Stephen Lee, have to say I'm therefore treating him as 64th player and Gary Wilson as 63rd

SteveJJ wrote:With it being so close and with only 8 guaranteed spots via QSchool, I wonder whether there has been an increase in entrants for Asian Tour 4 from those 55ish down.


Certainly think they ought to be doing so Steve, both those on the money list and on the points list as a better draw in the World Championship likely for the Top 64 players in the latter.

Players close to the Top 31 and Top 15 ought to be points chasing too, with either direct qualification for the Crucible (Top 15) or (from what I understand), the difference between playing 3 or 1 qualification matches to get there (and the quality of player you might be drawn against) (Top 31).

And the players who have missed out on PTC finals on the European Order of Merit, particularly those in striking distance of a PTC finals spot via the Asian Order of Merit (such as Scott Donaldson, Anthony McGill, Alan McManus, Matthew Selt, Ross Muir, Dechawat Poomjaeng and Graeme Dott).

Re: Tour Survival via European Order of Merit

Postby roy142857

Three other players are potentially affected by this were they to drop out of the Top 64 at the end of the season - Nigel Bond, Steve Davis and Peter Lines.

Nigel Bond seems unlikely to drop out, but were he to do so, he is ahead of Tony Drago on the Order of Merit. He'd get his Tour card back if Greene and Baird to stay in the Top 64 and one of Williams, Donaldson, Brecel and Burns gets in; OR if only one of Greene and Baird stay in the Top 64 and two of Williams, Donaldson, Brecel and Burns get in; OR if both Greene and Baird drop out of the Top 64 but three of Williams, Donaldson, Brecel and Burns climb into the Top 64.

Steve Davis I think will do enough to stay in the Top 64. His chances of making it back otherwise are a little slim, as he's ahead of Mike Dunn but behind Martin O'Donnell on the Order of Merit. He'd get his Tour card back if Bond, Greene and Baird stay in the Top 64 and three of Williams, Donaldson, Brecel and Burns take a Top 64 place; OR if two of Bond, Greene and Baird stay in the Top 64 and all four of Williams, Donaldson, Brecel and Burns get into the Top 64.

And Peter Lines had better stay in the Top 64, he's just ahead of Zhāng Āndá on the Order of Merit so effectively would take over Zhāng Āndá's very slim chance. This needs none of Bond, Davis, Greene and Baird to drop out of the Top 64 whilst all four of Williams, Donaldson, Brecel and Burns get into the Top 64. A scenario which would probably need all of Jimmy White, Dave Harold, David Morris and Gary Wilson to not be in the Top 64.

Obviously Bond dropping out would reduce the chances of Drago, O'Donnell and Dunn and any of Bond, Davis and Lines dropping out would kill Zhāng Āndá's very slim chance. Steve Davis dropping out would put Mike Dunn's chances back to very slim.