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Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby snookerbacker

Hello All,

Firstly to Sonny, congratulations on getting the site up and running will be having a walk around the island in the next few days, though you did promise me a full sized table and Kelly Brook :chin:

Anyway, my own world championship preview is up on the blog at snookerbacker.com for anyone with a day to spare.....got a bit carried away. Too excited :excited:

If anyone is thinking of having a bet check out the offer that the sponsors are doing for first time customers - there is a click through to it on the right hand menu.

cheers all, now off to look for Kelly :wild2:

Re: Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby Bourne

snookerbacker wrote:Cheers Bourney,

Struck any wagers yet yourself my old chap?

Not yet no, looking to fade the out-of-form players in R1 though ... Picking an outright winner is goddamn tough here.

Re: Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby snookerbacker

For me JB, it boils down to 3 groups:

Past Winners.
Ranking/Masters Winners this season.
Big Shock

I think there will be a new winner, so that says to me it's either Robbo, Selby or Ding. So I've backed them all.

If you go for Past Winners who could win it again, there are only three too, Ronnie, Higgins and Williams. Murphy, Dott, Nuggett, Ken no. Ebdon...........outside chance.

Shock - Winner of Cope/Carter but no no no, or Allen, no.

Re: Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby Bourne

I'd never thought to categorise like that ... well this is a scenario:

Only once in Crucible history has a player outside the top 16 won the tournament (Murphy 05), which rules out:

Hawkins
S Davis
O'Brien
Gould
Cope
Holt
Pettman
Greene
Lee
Dott
Ford
M Davis
Doherty
Zhang
Campbell
Liang

Only once in 25 years has the winner failed to reach a ranking final before winning the Worlds (Murphy 05), which rules out:

Allen

Since 1979, the winner has been aged between 22 years and 8 months, and 33 years and 11 months, which rules out:

Higgins
King
Perry
Ebdon
Hendry
Williams
O'Sullivan

Only once since 1981 has the winner been from outside the UK, which rules out:

Robertson
Fu
Ding

Of the last 6 champions, 5 had reached a World final before, which rules out:

Day
Maguire

The last Championships saw the winner lose in a tournament final previously that season, which rules out:

Murphy
Selby

So, the winner will be Allister Carter.

Re: Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby Bourne

It's defintiely not foolproof ;)

I just think it's far too open to be backing single-figure prices here, so many good players all capable of beating eachother, a lot of the top contenders drawn eachother in the bottom quarter, Robbo or Higgins out before the semis, Murphy or Ding out before the quarters ... It's going to be hard for a player to win this tournament easily so I don't like backing the shorter prices in this situation.

Re: Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby Bourne

Got to say i'm a bit disappointed at the public gamble on Ding in recent weeks, I understand why but I was hoping to get like 12s at least given his poor record there over the years and the fact that Selby won the Masters a few months ago, that he'd be clear 3rd favo ... Dividing them up like SB did, into the faves/good chances/decent outsiders/little-chances, these are my favourite from each category to win:

Faves - John Higgins 11/2
Good chances - Neil Robertson 12/1
Decent Outsiders - Ali Carter 33/1
Little Chances - Liang Wenbo 80/1

So for me, this Higgins vs Robertson quarter-final is going to be huge, one of those prices is going to look pretty silly come the semis.

Re: Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby Witz78

StalinESQ wrote:Zhanger
King
Day
Dotty

60 notes return 882.44 <ok>


If it comes in ill give you the money myself rofl

Ive got Fu to beat Gouldy by more than a frame, Ding to beat Pettman, Robbo to beat O'Brien and Williams to beat Campbell. £400 on that gets a tidy £1000 back.

Also gone £80 on Davis to beat King for a nice £230 return.

£60 on Zhang to beat Hendry for a £260 return

and £25 on Wenbo to beat Ronnie for a £125 return though i hope i lose that bet :john:

Also contemplating bets on Cope and Ebdon

Re: Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby Smart

rocket_ron wrote:
StalinESQ wrote:Zhanger
King
Day
Dotty

60 notes return 882.44 <ok>

only 4 fold bet,

any 16 match accys?


yes of course, but you might as well open the nearest window and throw your cash out.................. <laugh>

I have deliveberately chosen:

an outsider with great potential and who I believe in VS a former champ with a great record

PLUS

3 other matches with favourables odds

THUS maximising any return on investment...... I am not interested in 5 or 10 % returns, its multi-baggers that interest me. :redneck:

Re: Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby Bourne

OK, got about £380 to play with this fortnight, start off with:

Higgins to win World Champs @ 6.0 (£100) - The man to beat. Kind draw to ease him in before the big match against Robbo in QF ... winner of that makes the final for me, and although Robbo's beaten him already this season, I think it's a different kettle of fish in Sheffield. With Higgins, I know i'm going to get a guy who won't give in no matter how much he's struggling and that's always re-assuring.

Ebdon to win World Champs @ 80.0 (£20) - Like this for a number of reasons. First, he's in the 'easy' quarter with no big names. Secondly, he's a former champ here so knows what it takes, as well as being in a final only 4 years ago and a ranking winner in the last 13 months. His form isn't ideal but I don't believe that form should be the be all and end all when making picks for the Crucible ... like Higgins, I know i'm going to get value for money here with Ebdon's battling qualities alone.

Good luck :mosh2:

Re: Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby Rocket_ron

Bourne wrote:OK, got about £380 to play with this fortnight, start off with:

Higgins to win World Champs @ 6.0 (£100) - The man to beat. Kind draw to ease him in before the big match against Robbo in QF ... winner of that makes the final for me, and although Robbo's beaten him already this season, I think it's a different kettle of fish in Sheffield. With Higgins, I know i'm going to get a guy who won't give in no matter how much he's struggling and that's always re-assuring.

Ebdon to win World Champs @ 80.0 (£20) - Like this for a number of reasons. First, he's in the 'easy' quarter with no big names. Secondly, he's a former champ here so knows what it takes, as well as being in a final only 4 years ago and a ranking winner in the last 13 months. His form isn't ideal but I don't believe that form should be the be all and end all when making picks for the Crucible ... like Higgins, I know i'm going to get value for money here with Ebdon's battling qualities alone.

Good luck :mosh2:

can someone explain these odds that bourne uses 6.0 and 80.0 i dont understand

Re: Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby Casey

With Robbo 6-3 up and Ding 8-1 up my bet looks certain now. :D

I will plumb the whole lot on Higgins and Robbo to come through their next match....maybe Allen as well if Mark Davis wins through

Re: Betting / Tournament Preview for Gamblers and Addicts

Postby Bourne

Big Stephen Lee over Maguire @ 4.3 (£40)

Problems for Mags in the last week or so with police matters, can't have done his preparation much good. Lee has at least had a clean run-in since his problems, easy win in qualies over the same frame distance ... this is at least a decent value bet.


   

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