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The next debutant world finalist

Postby Roland

Who do you think will be the next debutant in a world final? And how about the next 3 or 4 debutants?

A couple of names close to the top of the game stand out but looking past them you're into the unknown. Maybe the next couple aren't even on tour yet.

Discuss.

Re: The next debutant in a world final

Postby PLtheRef

Intriguing question, but there's only ever been one debutant make a World Final since 1977 and that's Griffiths so it may be a while yet

Re: The next debutant in a world final

Postby Lucky

PLtheRef wrote:Intriguing question, but there's only ever been one debutant make a World Final since 1977 and that's Griffiths so it may be a while yet



Is that what Sonny means.....or next first time finalist

Re: The next debutant in a world final

Postby Witz78

of course he means next first time finalist

or else how would a couple of current top names stand out haha

Ding probably the most obvious of the current crop though his game has dipped lately

as for future stars to make the final, TT, Yupeng and Brecel are my main ones to look out for

Re: The next debutant in a world final

Postby Roland

I never even saw the double meaning of debutant. Yes of course I mean first time in a world final, not first season on tour

Re: The next debutant in a world final

Postby Skullman

Don't think Ding will. He's very inconsistent these days and he has too many battle scars at the Crucible. He sort of fell apart when Day came back at his last year. Don't think Maguire will either, He has the game but again lacks consistency and his temperment's a bit dodgy. Maybe Allen if he doesn't run into those players that are better than him.

Otherwise, it'll be the likes of Lisowski, Cao or Brecel. Or a complete surprise player who has a run out of nowhere.

Re: The next debutant in a world final

Postby Roland

You mentioned 4 of my 5 Skullman. I think only Ding and Allen of the current crop, and then looking down the list to the likes of Jack and Luca and McGill as well.

Re: The next debutant in a world final

Postby GJ

Jamie is quality will hit top form soon .............

Re: The next debutant in a world final

Postby GJ

Lucky wrote:
GJ wrote:Jamie is quality will hit top form soon .............


Oh dear..........



Oh dear .......................

Re: The next debutant in a world final

Postby PLtheRef

It is interesting. The thing to note in general is that someone who is going to reach the final at the Crucible is going to do it when they are relatively newish to the venue. The 26 players who've appeared at the final have done so for the first time in a combined total of 101 appearances at the Crucible, - making the average span of 3.88 appearances from your Crucible debut to reach the final.

Spencer 1st Appearance
Thorburn 1st
Reardon 2nd
Mans 2nd
Griffiths 1st
DN Taylor 3rd
A Higgins 4th
Davis 3rd
Mountjoy 5th
White 4th
Johnson 3rd
Parrott 6th
Hendry 5th
Bond 4th
Ebdon 5th
Doherty 5th
Higgins 4th
Williams 3rd
Stevens 3rd
O'Sullivan 9th
Dott 5th
Murphy 3rd
Selby 3rd
Carter 6th
Robertson 6th
Trump 2nd

101 appearances by 26 players - 3.88

That rules out several members of the current top 16 who have been in the past widely tipped to reach the final - Ding, Maguire, and Allen being probably the most high profile three. There are several exceptions to the rule, O'Sullivan took 9 appearances to make the final from 1993 to 2001.


So to who I think will be next Crucible debutant finalist - I think though he is actually been at the Crucible 7 times now with only appearing in one semi - Allen's the best of the current top 16 yet to make a Crucible final.

Of the new brigade, I think Brecel is the one who's currently in the best shape, he's got three runs to make the final left if you go on the 3.88 average and is someone who will have the experience of the venue.
Last edited by PLtheRef on 20 Jan 2013, edited 1 time in total.

Re: The next debutant world finalist

Postby Roland

Good post Paddy. O'Sullivan 9 appearances before his final. Didn't think it was that long but it did seem to take a while.

Re: The next debutant world finalist

Postby Casey

Allen or Ding surely? They are the only two young players currently winning tournaments that have yet to make the final.

Re: The next debutant world finalist

Postby GJ

Being serious

Allen IMO he has the game , and the heart for the battle

He showed the other day he is a classy player just need to stay consistent