Post a reply

Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby SnookerAnalyst

The results in the German Masters and Welsh Open over the next few weeks will determine the seedings for the last part of the season, including the World Championship. Ronnie O’Sullivan is currently ranked #16 but has provisionally fallen behind both Ricky Walden and Mark Davis, leaving himself with a fair bit to do in the next 2 tournaments. Whether or not he can retain his place is likely to be one of the biggest discussion points over the next month.

I have created a mathematical model of the German Masters and Welsh Open which allows me to simulate the results of the events a number of times. The result of this is that O’Sullivan’s chances of staying in the Top 16 are estimated to be around 46% (see http://www.snookeranalyst.com/ronnie16/).

Further analysis demonstrates the importance of his 1st round match in the German Masters (against Andrew Higginson on Thursday). If he wins then his chances rise to 57%, but lose and they fall to 14% - he may well have to win the Welsh Open to retain his place.

In fact, by winning his 1st round match in both tournaments then he will be right in the mix again and one more victory could be enough to secure his place.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Monique

This last cut-off will determine the seeding for the World Championship only which is a bit weird as there are still 3 other ranking events to be played before the World qualifiers and two of them bearing a lot more points than either the German Masters and the Welsh Open.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Wildey

The Results in Germany and Wales will only affect the World Championship this season whitch is wrong with World Open,PTC GF and China Open to come.

will Ronnie make it ?

he should hes too good not to

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Wildey

the question is though with

5 chinese rankers
Aussie Open
German Masters
6 PTC outside brittain

how much traveling does he want to make in the future to maintain a high enough ranking ?

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby SnookerFan

Am I the only one who'd laugh if he dropped out of it? It'd serve him right for never travelling to tournaments.

Also, imagine a first round match at The Crucible where a top-16er got Ronnie.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby GJ

hitman_ronnie1 wrote:you'd love it if he fell out of the top 16 wouldn't u sf. :roll:



I wouldnt :-)

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Witz78

I dont like a lot of players in the top 16 but id rather they stayed there than the likes of Mavis got in there, so daft others wishing Ronnie out just cos they dont like him.

I know the rankings dont lie as they say, but no-one seems to be taking Wiggy seriously as a number 1, so on the other hand, no-one should seriously take Ronnie as a world number 16, 17 or whatever he ends up at before the WC cut-off.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby jojo

it would be silly if he drop out the top sixteen jimmy white think he can still win another six world titles although it may seem ronnies game is in decline he still good enough to win the world chapionship again

i dont think dropping out the top sixteen in a few weeks is too big a deal except it might shake up the first round of the world championship

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Wildey

jojo wrote:it would be silly if he drop out the top sixteen jimmy white think he can still win another six world titles although it may seem ronnies game is in decline he still good enough to win the world chapionship again

i dont think dropping out the top sixteen in a few weeks is too big a deal except it might shake up the first round of the world championship

yea Ronnies Game in Cubicles is pretty Clinical overall so it wont make a massive Difference to him.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Witz78

current rankings status

13 Matthew Stevens 42515
14 Stephen Lee 41375
15 Ricky Walden 41130
16 Stuart Bingham 41115
------------------------------
17 Mark Davis 40875
18 Ronnie O’Sullivan 38740

Ronnie currently 2,375 points from the top 16 so hes gonna need more than just a few Round 1 wins in Germany and Wales to remain in the elite and spare himself the qualifiers for the WC.

And even 2 quarters probably wont be enough as even that would only give him an extra 3,600 points and would mean relying on bulk of rivals above him to slip up in both events as even 1 R1 win for them would generate an extra 1,200 points at least.

Also given the fact Ronnies only made 1 ranking QF in the last 10 events, for him suddenly to reach 2 in a row at least, is going to need a far improved attitude and form.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Casey

Witz78 wrote:current rankings status

13 Matthew Stevens 42515
14 Stephen Lee 41375
15 Ricky Walden 41130
16 Stuart Bingham 41115
------------------------------
17 Mark Davis 40875
18 Ronnie O’Sullivan 38740

Ronnie currently 2,375 points from the top 16 so hes gonna need more than just a few Round 1 wins in Germany and Wales to remain in the elite and spare himself the qualifiers for the WC.

And even 2 quarters probably wont be enough as even that would only give him an extra 3,600 points and would mean relying on bulk of rivals above him to slip up in both events as even 1 R1 win for them would generate an extra 1,200 points at least.

Also given the fact Ronnies only made 1 ranking QF in the last 10 events, for him suddenly to reach 2 in a row at least, is going to need a far improved attitude and form.


His draw in Germany is pretty good though. Can't see him going out before the QF's and I also expect Davis to lose in the first round to Higgins who will be fired up to win this weekend.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Witz78

Casey wrote:
Witz78 wrote:current rankings status

13 Matthew Stevens 42515
14 Stephen Lee 41375
15 Ricky Walden 41130
16 Stuart Bingham 41115
------------------------------
17 Mark Davis 40875
18 Ronnie O’Sullivan 38740

Ronnie currently 2,375 points from the top 16 so hes gonna need more than just a few Round 1 wins in Germany and Wales to remain in the elite and spare himself the qualifiers for the WC.

And even 2 quarters probably wont be enough as even that would only give him an extra 3,600 points and would mean relying on bulk of rivals above him to slip up in both events as even 1 R1 win for them would generate an extra 1,200 points at least.

Also given the fact Ronnies only made 1 ranking QF in the last 10 events, for him suddenly to reach 2 in a row at least, is going to need a far improved attitude and form.


His draw in Germany is pretty good though. Can't see him going out before the QF's and I also expect Davis to lose in the first round to Higgins who will be fired up to win this weekend.


yeh but as i said quarters prob not even good enough for him....and thats if he even gets there. Im not convinced hell manage that in Germany TBH.

And Davis isnt really in the mix as he didnt qualify for Wales, hes bottled his last chance at the top 16 and will now start to slide as has more points to start defending again.

Its the guys currently in the provis. top 16 listed above that Ronnie is chasing, but its a chase too far.

Final nail in the coffin done by not entering last 2 PTCs, even 2 wins and 560 pts in both would have made a massive difference to what he has to do to avoid the inevitable.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby GJ

Witz78 wrote:
Casey wrote:
Witz78 wrote:current rankings status

13 Matthew Stevens 42515
14 Stephen Lee 41375
15 Ricky Walden 41130
16 Stuart Bingham 41115
------------------------------
17 Mark Davis 40875
18 Ronnie O’Sullivan 38740

Ronnie currently 2,375 points from the top 16 so hes gonna need more than just a few Round 1 wins in Germany and Wales to remain in the elite and spare himself the qualifiers for the WC.

And even 2 quarters probably wont be enough as even that would only give him an extra 3,600 points and would mean relying on bulk of rivals above him to slip up in both events as even 1 R1 win for them would generate an extra 1,200 points at least.

Also given the fact Ronnies only made 1 ranking QF in the last 10 events, for him suddenly to reach 2 in a row at least, is going to need a far improved attitude and form.


His draw in Germany is pretty good though. Can't see him going out before the QF's and I also expect Davis to lose in the first round to Higgins who will be fired up to win this weekend.


yeh but as i said quarters prob not even good enough for him....and thats if he even gets there. Im not convinced hell manage that in Germany TBH.

And Davis isnt really in the mix as he didnt qualify for Wales, hes bottled his last chance at the top 16 and will now start to slide as has more points to start defending again.

Its the guys currently in the provis. top 16 listed above that Ronnie is chasing, but its a chase too far.

Final nail in the coffin done by not entering last 2 PTCs, even 2 wins and 560 pts in both would have made a massive difference to what he has to do to avoid the inevitable.



How did mavis bottle his chance when welsh qualies havnt started yet

<laugh> rofl

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Witz78

fair enough, your right GJ

with all the mucked up schedules of qualies overlapping tournies etc ive got mixed up

nevermind, im sure if Davis has a good run in Germany to put himself in a good chance of top 16 hell then go and lose in Welsh qualifiers haha

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Witz78

13 Stephen Lee 42575
14 Matthew Stevens 42515
15 Stuart Bingham 42315
16 Ricky Walden 41630
------------------------------
17 Mark Davis 40875
18 Ronnie O’Sullivan 38740

LATEST RANKINGS after todays games

Ronnie now 2,890 points off 16th so IMO he needs at least 2 semi finals now in Germany and Wales to probably remain in the top 16.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Casey

Witz78 wrote:13 Stephen Lee 42575
14 Matthew Stevens 42515
15 Stuart Bingham 42315
16 Ricky Walden 41630
------------------------------
17 Mark Davis 40875
18 Ronnie O’Sullivan 38740

LATEST RANKINGS after todays games

Ronnie now 2,890 points off 16th so IMO he needs at least 2 semi finals now in Germany and Wales to probably remain in the top 16.


Anybody below Ronnie that can also challenge?

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Witz78

nah Hendry below him but not qualified for Germany

Higginson only other one mathematically really in with a shout but it aint gonna happen,

Lets say Ronnie makes the quarters in both, then thats another 3,600 points and would take him up to 42,340 still behind Lee and Stevens, even if they dont win anymore matches before cut-off.

so even with 2 QFs hed need Walden NOT to win another game in Germany and NOT win his Welsh qualifier

AND Bingham NOT to win another game in Germany PLUS his Round 1 game in Germany

Even 2 semis would only be another 1,400 points for Ronnie taking him up to 43,740 which still wouldnt be enough probably

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Casey

Witz78 wrote:nah Hendry below him but not qualified for Germany

Higginson only other one mathematically really in with a shout but it aint gonna happen,

Lets say Ronnie makes the quarters in both, then thats another 3,600 points and would take him up to 42,340 still behind Lee and Stevens, even if they dont win anymore matches before cut-off.

so even with 2 QFs hed need Walden NOT to win another game in Germany and NOT win his Welsh qualifier

AND Bingham NOT to win another game in Germany PLUS his Round 1 game in Germany

Even 2 semis would only be another 1,400 points for Ronnie taking him up to 43,740 which still wouldnt be enough probably


You feel this event would be his last real chance then, giving the draw he has a SF is possible.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Witz78

the easy way to see the task facing Ronnie is to identify HOW FAR BEHIND EACH PLAYER HE IS and SHOW THE MINIMUM HE HAS TO DO TO OVERTAKE THEM assuming THEY DONT WIN ANOTHER GAME IN GERMANY or WALES.

13 Stephen Lee 42575 (3,835 POINTS BEHIND) 1 SEMI, 1 QUARTER would put him 465 points ahead
14 Matthew Stevens 42515 (3,775 POINTS BEHIND) 1 SEMI, 1 QUARTER would put him 525 points ahead
15 Stuart Bingham 42315 (3,575 POINTS BEHIND) 2 QUARTERS would put him 20 points ahead
16 Ricky Walden 41630 (2,890 POINTS BEHIND) 1 QUARTER, 1 2ND ROUND would put him 110 points ahead
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
17 Mark Davis 40875
18 Ronnie O’Sullivan 38740

Realistically these players are all likely to score more points though, so even the runs listed above wont be enough to overhaul these players.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby jojo

i dont think it a disaster for ronnie o sullivan to drop out the top sixteen at least it not like a few years ago where it would have been for a whole season

the worst that can happen is he has to qualify for a few tournaments near the end of the season including the crucible

if mark williams can drop out the top sixteen come back and turn it around winning tournaments and reaching finals then so can ronnie

id love to see him play higgins in the first round at the crucible that will be amazing on the first saturday

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Witz78

the way i see it

Ronnie can barely be fussed playing in many tournaments as it is

so why on earth would he be interested in having to waste his time playing in qualifiers just to get to the very tournaments that he aint interested in playing in anyway

can see the Ronnie season in the future consisting of

a wildcard to get on tour

play snooker legends events

play Premier League thanks to being defending champion

play Power Snooker thanks to a wildcard

play the qualifiers for UK and qualify and play at UK

play at Masters thanks to a wildcard

play the WC qualfiers and qualify and play at WC

Q School to get on tour for next season or wilcard

REPEAT PROCESS the following season

can def see Ronnie just playing the majors going forward and the invitational events that suit him

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby SnookerFan

Witz78 wrote:the way i see it

Ronnie can barely be fussed playing in many tournaments as it is

so why on earth would he be interested in having to waste his time playing in qualifiers just to get to the very tournaments that he aint interested in playing in anyway

can see the Ronnie season in the future consisting of

a wildcard to get on tour

play snooker legends events

play Premier League thanks to being defending champion

play Power Snooker thanks to a wildcard

play the qualifiers for UK and qualify and play at UK

play at Masters thanks to a wildcard

play the WC qualfiers and qualify and play at WC

Q School to get on tour for next season or wilcard

REPEAT PROCESS the following season

can def see Ronnie just playing the majors going forward and the invitational events that suit him


If he drops out the 16, that's pretty much it.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Roland

Rubbish! If he drops out of the 16 he'll qualify for the Crucible and be the one to avoid for the top 16. Then as the events from last season get wiped off the rankings list he'll rise inside the top 8 and remain top 16 for years to come. Get real people.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby SnookerAnalyst

A quick update after yesterday's results. Lee & Bingham have more or less secured their Top 16 places after 1st round wins. Mark Davis looks to be out of the race though. Ricky Walden's win was the biggest result though and his chances of breaking back into the Top 16 are around 67%. Ronnie's chances have been reduced as a result (41%), so a lot depends on his match today.

I don't think dropping out of the Top 16 would affect him too much in the short term. If there are going to be 4 overseas tournaments at the start of next season though (3 in China + Australia) then you have to wonder whether he's going to want to play in them.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Witz78

Think your the one needing to get real Sonny.
Yes hell qualify for Crucible fine i agree, but facts are in the last 10 rankers he has 1 QF, 2 2nd rounds, 3 1st rnds and 4 did not enters as a record. He simply aint producing it anymore, hence im not even contemplating him having good runs here or in Wales to survive by the skin of his teeth again.
But once he drops out, can you seriously see him being fussed by qualifiers as well as all the PTCs, before we even think about the rankers themselves, most of which will be in the Far East now where he clearly has little interest in going to.

Re: Will Ronnie stay in the Top 16?

Postby Roland

Well that's up to him but I know he's concerned about his ranking and his performance overall in the PTCs says he is a top 4 player still. He is still paying for 2010/11. If he applies himself in the events he chooses to enter from this point then it's a no brainer he'll rise into the safety zone. I don't share this concern for him dropping out the 16 because I know he'll be back where he belongs before too long. It's not like he's going to drop off tour like the way some of you lot are making out.