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Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby GJ

£100 Robbo to win the worlds @ 10/1

£10 Stevens to win the worlds @ 66/1

:hatoff:

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Tubberlad

I'll fire £10 each way on Dott tomorrow... he's always a good bet in my opinion as you know he won't give less than a 100% effort, and his Crucible record is really strong :hatoff:

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day one

Robertson vs Trump:
Form -> Trump
Course/distance -> Robertson
Pressure -> Both
Whatever the result, Robertson is not a 1.5 shot here, odds should be much closer to evens with the way Judd was playing in China and the confidence he's acquired in recent months including a now solidified top-16 spot for next season no matter what happens here. Trump to win the match at 2.8+ might not appeal but to win 8 frames or more is a cracking bet, his bottle at the end of China was superb but the Crucible may prove different, so if he gets into position Robertson may be tough to push away.
Verdict - Trump +2.5 frames @ 1.9

Cope vs Pagett:
The Welshman taking the role of Wenbo/Chuang/Anda in the last few years with a surprise run to the venue, Pagett is pretty much a complete unknown to TV viewers but that's what makes him a decent value bet here. Of all the seeds to draw, Cope would have been high on his list, so much talent but so inconsistent and suffers the nerves as much as anyone. If Pagett gets off to a good start, he could really scare Cope and it would be interesting to see how he responds. Tricky to call.
Verdict - First 4 frames: Pagett to win @ 5

Carter vs Harold:
Can't see any problem for the Tiptree Titan here, Harold maybe more dangerous if the match is close but I don't think Ali will let the match get to that stage. Like this bet a lot.
Verdict - Carter -3.5 frames @ 1.91

Williams vs Day:
Have a sneaky feeling that Williams could be caused some problems here, but sneaky feelings alone aren't great to bet with as most of the logic suggests Williams by 3 or 4 frames here. But I tend to notice that Williams starts matches quickly, has a lot more resounding wins in BO9s than anyone else these days and with this bet at odds-against, it seems the only thing I can find worth betting on here with any real degree of comfort.
Verdict - First 4 frames: Williams to win @ 2.2

Murphy vs Campbell:
Murphy a course and distance winner, had a good season particularly in the PTCs but generally struggled a little in the regular rankers. Campbell didn't make a single century break in his qualifier this year, last year or his match at the venue vs Williams last year. Murphy tends to be generally reliable in the balls so this bet, whilst not an attractive price, looks solid enough.
Verdict - Murphy high-break @ 1.5

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day two

Ding vs Burnett:
Burnett played very well by all accounts I heard to beat Liang in qualifiers, but doing it there is one thing, Ding has had another good season and with this draw, should contend. 1.16 to win is crap value, instead a cheeky little punt on the first four frames to be shared, early on nerves from both players should be rife and you'd be unlucky not to at least have a shot at this bet after three frames.
Verdict - First 4 frames: DRAW @ 3.0

Hendry vs Perry:
Despite Hendry's indifferent season, you still have to go back to 2006 for the last time he lost in R1 at the Crucible where he is still a different animal. Hendry has the added incentive of fighting for his top-16 place, if he loses he has no chance, while Perry is stuck in no-mans-land at 27th. Perry's season has been very poor and has only recorded one good run at this tournament, 3 years ago, but he's fallen a long way since then and I just can't see past Hendry's experience in getting him over the line here.
Verdict - Hendry to win @ 1.67

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day three

Maguire vs Hawkins:
Battle between two mentally suspect players with, relatively speaking, poor individual records at the Crucible. When the draw was made each would have been pretty happy with it i'm sure, I don't think the upset is out of the question but you have to trust Maguire a touch more in this environment than Barry who i'm hoping will make a good match of it to give this bet a rock-solid chance.
Verdict - Over 16.5 frames @ 1.91

O'Sullivan vs Dale:
Take a brave man to predict how this will go but i'll give it a go. Dale's unquestionably had the better season by their respective standards, best of all for him he goes into the match with very few expectations from either the public, media or that he'll put on himself and I believe that makes him dangerous. Again if it came down to the crunch, he's suspect under the big P but instead of relying on him to win 10 frames, this bet will only ask on him winning 6, so just staying in the match after the first session and getting 2 or 3 in the second will be enough.
Verdict - Dale +4.5 @ 1.91

Ebdon vs Bingham:
Whilst Ebdon's career record at the Crucible is one most would only dream of (1 win, 2 other finals), he has failed to win a match since a R2 win over Mark King in 2008, and recently dropped out of the top 16 for the first time in several years. He fought his way back in mainly down to a good draw at the World Open, but seems to struggle in the longer-format these days. Bingham on the other hand was a comfortable qualifier and a surprise quarter-finalist at the UK in BO17, a pretty good barometer for this event. He's provisionally top-16 and a win would only solidify his claim for starting next year in the elite again. I think he has solid claims for favouritism here, so have to take this price.
Verdict - Bingham to win @ 2.14

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

GJ wrote:bingham is cracking value :hatoff:

Ebdon used to be so reliable in the longer matches and i've fallen in the trap a few times tbh but not this time, he can't seem to keep that intesity up for the whole match anymore, while Bingham can be a pretty ruthless scorer on his day.

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby GJ

Bourne wrote:
GJ wrote:bingham is cracking value :hatoff:

Ebdon used to be so reliable in the longer matches and i've fallen in the trap a few times tbh but not this time, he can't seem to keep that intesity up for the whole match anymore, while Bingham can be a pretty ruthless scorer on his day.



Totaly agree :hatoff:

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day four

Fu vs Gould:
My instinct as soon as the draw was made here was that Fu would get revenge, he's had a better season this year than last where he lacked the confidence to kill off the match despite leading numerous times. Gould shouldn't be underestimated though, 4/6 on Fu is a bit smelly given that Gould could get off to a fast start. Both are heavy scorers when in so instead of taking a bit of a risky punt on either coming through to win the match, this bet at these odds offers value, there were three centuries last year between the pair when both were at a lower ebb they are now (Fu has reached a final and semi-final since January, Gould a PTC finalist).
Verdict - Over 1.5 centuries @ 2.0

Walden vs McLeod:
Different instinct here was to give McLeod a go based on Walden's stop-start season, but then I checked out McLeod's record at the venues and it's really not good at all. I fancy Walden's heavy scoring when in to be enough to give him a pretty straightforward win here, so a speculative punt on a correct score like 10-3 @ 25s (Hills) appeals, but this feels like a rock-solid winner to me.
Verdict - Walden to win @ 1.59

Dott vs King:
Tough, tough to call this. Dott may be defending finalist here but he failed to get past R1 the last two times he came back from a final the next year, and King is one of the toughest R1 opponents he could have got. I'm sure King will try and break things up a bit and frustrate Graeme, who's a bit low on confidence himself after a surprise early exit in China. Can't be having King at the same price as McLeod in his match, so a bit of cap action here won't go amiss.
Verdict - King +2.5 @ 1.91

Allen vs Stevens:
While you can't bring into question Allen's record in the long format over the last couple of years (semis in UK in Dec, Worlds in 09 and QF last year), he seems to have lost something from his game since then that made him a fearless, confident and relentless player. Stevens has been one of the standout performers in the last couple of months, had to fight tooth and nail to merely get here with a 10-9 win over O'Brien so he will value this opportunity, whereas Allen is fighting a bit to hold onto his top-16 spot, it will be interesting to see how he reacts to the added pressure in that scenario, but at the moment I trust Matthew Stevens a lot more (can't believe i'm saying that) and think he'll do the job.
Verdict - Stevens to win @ 2.32

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day five

Higgins vs Lee:
Another match with real upset potential, I think Higgins is most vulnerable in his first match up to the final so if he gets through this i'd back him confidently to reach the final. For instance he was a slow starter against Lisowski in Wales, came through and won the tournament without breaking sweat after that. In the UK he and Lee played out imo one of the best quality matches of the season and that gave him the boost he needed to win the tournament on his return. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar standard in this one, so a generous offer from skybet for that to happen without worrying about who's making the big breaks.
Verdict - Over 2.5 centuries @ 2.5

Selby vs Robertson:
Will Robertson sink or swim ... hard to say given i've never seen him play before but i've seen pictures of him and he looks a bit like a cocky so and so and that might be to his advantage because you need to have the right attitude to not freeze on a Crucible debut, and his scoring in the qualifiers was up there with anyone elses. But Selby is a machine on his day and won't make things easy for Jimmy and I don't think he will react badly to his China final defeat. Not easy to find an attractive bet at a good price so i'll take a speculative punt instead on the jester getting off to the perfect start.
Verdict - Selby to make a century in first frame @ 8.5

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day six

Williams vs Cope:
Both were below-par in R1 understandably since it's hard to find your A-game straight away at the Crucible of all places so I expect an upturn in quality here. Cope's top-16 place looks almost secure now which should free the shackles a bit, he has beaten Williams a couple of times and lost out in a couple of tight matches too, which highlights his tendency to get shaky knees at the business-end of matches. So instead of backing him to win at a slightly attractive 7/2, i'll edge him to knock in the biggest ton as Mark likes to play around with the balls at the end of big breaks instead of really going for it.
Verdict - Cope to hit high-break @ 2.75

Trump vs Gould:
Tasty encounter this, both had to fight their way past tenacious opponents in R1 to win 10-8, and while neither was in top-gear in the first round, their confidence will be very high and again I expect an improvement in the standard. Trump hasn't tasted defeat since his loss to Gould in the PTC Finals (2-4) but this will be different over the longer-format, plenty of ebbs and flows and flip-flops. Both possess quality long-potting ability and there probably won't be much safety so i'm looking for a player who is going to be more reliable when under the cosh and being presented with opportunities and I just can't see past Trump. 1/3 is a bit smelly, he's only won two matches as favourite at a venue all season and I have a bad history of backing him at this price, so instead, the handicap play looks a bit more attractive to double the money but a bit more risk, but a risk worth taking I feel since the nature of this match could see either getting on a run and moving away from the other.
Verdict - Trump -3.5 @ 2.0

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

ROUND-ONE:
Results
Robertson vs Trump - Trump +2.5 frames @ 1.9 WIN
Cope vs Pagett - First 4 frames: Pagett to win @ 5 LOSS
Carter vs Harold - Carter -3.5 frames @ 1.91 WIN
Williams vs Day - First 4 frames: Williams to win @ 2.2 WIN
Murphy vs Campbell - Murphy high-break @ 1.5 WIN
Ding vs Burnett - First 4 frames: DRAW @ 3.0 LOSS
Hendry vs Perry - Hendry to win @ 1.67 WIN
Maguire vs Hawkins - Over 16.5 frames @ 1.91 WIN
O'Sullivan vs Dale = Dale +4.5 frames @ 1.91 LOSS
Ebdon vs Bingham - Bingham to win @ 2.14 WIN
Fu vs Gould - Over 1.5 centuries @ 2.0 WIN
Walden vs McLeod - Walden to win @ 1.59 LOSS
Dott vs King - King +2.5 @ 1.91 LOSS
Allen vs Stevens - Stevens to win @ 2.32 LOSS
Higgins vs Lee - Over 2.5 centuries @ 2.5 WIN
Selby vs Robertson - Selby to make a century in first frame @ 8.5 LOSS
= 9/16
For 1 unit per play, profit = 1.73

Not bad, not great.

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day seven

Carter vs Dott:
Have to say the odds (generally 5/6 the pair) look fair, tough one to call that might eventually come down to bottle in the end ... one price is going to look very silly in 24 hours time. Instead of waiting around for 48 hours sweating on the result, I want a quick-fix and this bet will be done and dusted inside the first half hour, and i've gone for El Capitano because Dott doesn't come across to me as a morning person, flawless logic hopefully.
Verdict - Carter to win first frame @ 1.91

Allen vs Hawkins:
No doubt both players will be on a real high after their round-one wins, Barry because of a first win in 6 attempts at the venue but Mark because of the nature of his win over Stevens winning the last 4 frames in an emotional manner will really make him feel like he has nothing to lose in this one. He has to improve though, Barry was definitely the more impressive in R1 which makes him the value play, with a view to trade if he gets near the winning line taking into account his nerves. That one win for Barry might just be the catalyst he needs to really break free and start to fulfill some of the potential he's kept inside for too long. I think this line is way too generous to turn down.
Verdict - Hawkins +3.5 @ 1.9

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day eight

O'Sullivan vs Murphy:
Still can't believe just how much the bookies are orgasming over Ronnie here after one win against a totally out of sorts qualifier ... Murphy has had the much better season, has the much better record here in the last couple of seasons and is the much more solid and dependable of the two. I'm not complaining though, this bet is cracking value, O'Sullivan has to turn up right for three sessions here if he wants to win, 2 and a half won't be enough, Murphy will be hungry to win this after a bit of bad blood between these two.
Verdict - Murphy @ 2.58

Selby vs Hendry:
Just impossible to see past Selby here, even if he'd come into the tournament low on confidence you'd still imagine his B-game would be enough to beat Hendry over the distance but he's playing well, won 10 frames on the trot against Robertson while Hendry is already contemplating life outside the playing arena, and losing to Selby wouldn't be a bad way for a great like Stephen to go out. I'm sure he'll put up a fight especially early doors because he doesn't mind being the underdog and proving people wrong, but should fizzle out. For that reason i'll take Hendo to take a share of the opening 4 frames and he may even have a sniff of covering the handicap of 9 frames but 4/1 isn't nearly big enough to contemplate on him winning the match outright.
Verdict - First 4 frames: DRAW @ 2.75

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby John From London Town

:hatoff:
On Graeme Dott @ 28's e/w & Mark Selby @ 6's, took the 3's a place too. I'll be honest & say I didn't see Judd keeping it together as well as he has done so far at the Crucible.

I mention that because I've also done Mark Selby v Shaun Murphy @ 30's to reach the final & also Graeme Dott v Shaun Murphy to reach the final @ 80's.

I think Mark Williams is the Man to beat, I just didn't want to touch any one in the bottom half of the draw. My thinking was I'd let then slug it away amongst each other & my boys in the top half creep thru under the radar.
:hatoff:

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

John From London Town wrote::hatoff:
On Graeme Dott @ 28's e/w & Mark Selby @ 6's, took the 3's a place too. I'll be honest & say I didn't see Judd keeping it together as well as he has done so far at the Crucible.

I mention that because I've also done Mark Selby v Shaun Murphy @ 30's to reach the final & also Graeme Dott v Shaun Murphy to reach the final @ 80's.

I think Mark Williams is the Man to beat, I just didn't want to touch any one in the bottom half of the draw. My thinking was I'd let then slug it away amongst each other & my boys in the top half creep thru under the radar.
:hatoff:

Same mate only i'm on Ding, what a match that could be in the quarter-finals. I wonder if they'd box eachother out for a semi-final ? Interesting.

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby vodkadiet

vodkadiet wrote:I had a big bet on Williams to win the 3rd quarter at 9/5. It is now 5/6 in places.

Frame <cool>


Frame <cool> <cool> <cool>

I have a decent amount going on Murphy to send Ronnie home. :happy:

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day nine

Ding vs Bingham:
Think Ding will win but 1/6 is not my sort of odds back when 13 frames from the winning line. Ding on the handicap (-4.5) at a generous 1.9 looks a far better proposition, can't see Bingham really living with Ding throughout the match, his best chance is if he keeps the match ugly and tight, not some miraculous comeback. Instead i'll take this performance-related bet which will be mainly based on form so far: Bingham scored 5 half-centuries in R1 (18 frames) while Ding scored 8 (12 frames). BO25 here, likely to be only around 20 or so completed here, so unders on this bet looks a cracker especially when you add in the increased nerves at this stage of the tournament.
Verdict - Under 14.5 fifty-breaks @ 1.91

Higgins vs McLeod:
Even though Higgins lost as a 1.05 shot last year at this stage to Davis, lightning does not and will not strike twice. Even if McLeod doubles his improvement from a shocking R1 performance, he will still be doing well to take this match to a third session. Skybet do a tempting handicap line of 9.5 @ 5/2 for Higgins to cover, which I think he may do, but instead i'll go for an even more attractive price on Higgins to get out of the blocks quickly, or even to fall out of the blocks, he should take at least 3 of the opening 4 and I expected 1.5 tops.
Verdict - First 4 frames: Higgins to win @ 1.67

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day eleven

Trump vs Dott:
First of four uber-tasty matches, one of the form players on tour at the moment against a 3-time former finalist who's never lost at this stage ... both brimming with confidence, both with different approaches to the game but easy to make strong cases for each to win this. Before looking at the odds I had Trump down as a 1.9 ish favourite, which is the case in a few books (some have him 1.7 which is too short) so I can't really take any value from the match odds. Instead a little play on the handicap looks the best option - if Trump is to win, I don't see it being in a tight, tense, nervy encounter, I see it being with him edging each session and maybe stretching his legs in the last session to win by 3 or 4. Dott has to be a strong favourite if the match stays tight in the final session where he can use his experience to frustrate Trump into errors. I think both will trade higher than their SPs in-play, but now I like this bet.
Verdict - Trump -1.5 @ 2.1

Williams vs Allen:
Can't see past Williams here, despite Allen's two emotional wins. Williams looks a really good shout to at least make the final now and probably starting it as favourite, so immediately i'm taking a bit of the 6/1 on him for the title after Higgins and O'Sullivan box themselves out. As for this match, the way Williams has played so far tells me possesses a bit of a ruthless edge this week, while Allen has tended to need a few chances to win most of his frames. The way Williams will be winning many frames in 5 minutes or so should get to Allen, and I (hope) think that Williams will be able to get a fast start later today and run out an easy winner, so this bet needs anything as/more comfortable than a 13-8, to either player of course.
Verdict - Under 21.5 frames @ 2.1

Selby vs Ding:
Only a fool could back heavily against Selby the way he's played thus far, worthy favourite. But the way Ding managed to come through against Bingham winning the last 4 frames with his back against the wall suggests he's got the heart for the fight and Selby knows even if he is edging in front, he has to work hard for the win, something he hasn't done yet this week and hasn't done at all since the China final, when he ended up losing a tight one. Ding has to stay in touch throughout, no worse than 2 or 3 frame defecits realistically. Now we're at this stage of the tournament, with Ding finally breaking the R2 hurdle, I think he can relax a bit more and help this bet out. The line of 3.5 seems quite paultry when you consider Ding has made three centuries and Selby seven centuries so far but the quality should even increase now. Overs has to be the play here since I don't feel strongly enough to take either in the match market.
Verdict - Over 3.5 centuries @ 2.2

O'Sullivan vs Higgins:
Neither has hit top-gear yet but that doesn't mean a lot, both are incredible champions in this sport (6 world titles don't come for free) and both have the ability to raise their game when it matters. But i'm going to edge towards the slightly more in-form horse, I thought Higgins looked a bit lethargic against McLeod at times, his eyes seemed a bit heavy almost as if he didn't feel like he was enjoying the fight. On the other hand, Ronnie has a spring in his step and is close to his top level, which is the least he'll need to win if Higgins is at his best. O'Sullivan controlled the tempo well against Murphy, whenever he was handed a good chance he tended to take advantage quickly and will have to do the same against Higgins to avoid too many prolonged safety bouts. But I think he'll be the one who is pumped up for the fight just that 5% more which will be the difference.
Verdict - O'Sullivan to win @ 2

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day thirteen

Trump vs Dott:
Not going to touch the match market on this one but let's put it this way I think they've got the odds wrong. Instead i'll go with a speculative punt on one of the specials, this is total guesswork so i'll go for the price which I think is best value and with each player adept at the long-pots i'm sure that's how the first red will go in with an element of safety so they'll come up the table and hopefully land on yellow, green or brown ... probably the last time i'll ever bet on this market haha but WillHill are being generous here.
Verdict - First legal colour potted: Baulk (Yellow/Green/Brown) @ 3.5

Williams vs Higgins:
Just wondering if Williams will suffer the same fate that happens to a lot of players at the Worlds, having a lack of a test in earlier rounds can make players feel a little bit less match-tough and with Higgins on the other side of the table you need to have every ounce of your being with you to win. HTHs don't matter at this point in the tournament so no point looking at them, nor does previous number of World titles, both players have been there seen it done it and got the t-shirt as far as this tournament is concerned. Maybe one factor that still might be relevant is the UK final where Higgins pulled a win out of nowhere which must have hurt Williams, that might play on his mind at some point but he'll probably forget about that as soon as he gets his first frame on the board. I think Williams holds the edge with how he's performing so far this tournament but not enough to bet on him, so a spot of value-hunting in the specials again and this one stands out - Williams and Higgins have each remarkably made the same number of half-centuries and centuries this week, nothing to separate them, so why is Higgins 4/7 favourite to make the high-break when Williams even leads that score too ? Williams has to be the play at this price.
Verdict - Williams to make high-break @ 2.25

Re: World Championships 2011: YOUR BETS

Postby Bourne

Day sixteen

Trump vs Higgins:
Short and sweet, Judd in the form of his life, 9 matches and 0, confident, almost nothing to lose ... against Higgins who could potentially take Judd for granted like others have. No reason why Judd can't win, he's good enough, so I have to play this.
Verdict - Trump to win @ 2.64


   

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