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World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby Bourne

Thought this topic deserved a thread of it's own. Because the rankings are now 'live' and rolling, the best players over the last season or so are all now in proper order, so we can get a better look at who is being favoured or overlooked in terms of prices. Let's look at the best prices available for the top-16 players and a couple of the qualifiers (in ranking order):

Because there are still two tournaments to play before the Worlds, the odds are likely to change significantly before mid-April.

1 John Higgins (6/1 SportingBet)
2 Mark Williams (9/1 BlueSQ)
3 Neil Robertson (9.8 Betfair)
4 Mark Selby (9.2 Betfair)
5 Ding Junhui (12 Betfair)
6 Stephen Maguire (25/1 VictorChandler)
7 Shaun Murphy (24 Betfair)
8 Allister Carter (30 Betfair)

9 Graeme Dott (40 Betfair)
10 Ronnie O'Sullivan (13/2 StanJames)
11 Mark Allen (20/1 Coral)
12 Peter Ebdon (100 Betfair)
13 Stephen Hendry (80/1 SportingBet)
14 Jamie Cope (66/1 PaddyPower)
15 Ricky Walden (125/1 Totesport)
16 Marco Fu (66/1 BlueSQ)

And some of the shorter-priced qualifiers:

18 Matthew Stevens (100/1 BlueSQ)
20 Ryan Day (66/1 SkyBet)
24 Judd Trump (65 Betfair)

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Favourites: It took the Welsh Open win for John Higgins (6/1) to finally unseat O'Sullivan (13/2) as favourite for the World Championships, but why ? O'Sullivan has had a shocking season, no ranking wins since the World Open in BO5 (a format which seems to suit his attention span these days), so how can he still be priced up joint-favourite in a tournament where he'll have to hang around for around 17 days and play upwards of 120 frames ? Higgins took the only long-frame tournament at the UK this season and hasn't lost a ranking match since the Worlds last year, so is worthy favourite, but he's landed a tough section and will have to keep relying on that old mental-strength if he's to make another final, and in such a loaded bottom-half, i'm happy to ignore the short prices on the likes of Higgins, O'Sullivan and Mark Williams (9/1). Instead, NEIL ROBERTSON (9.8), defending champ, looks the best proposition. Won 8 of his last 9 at the Crucible, and I don't believe in this curse nonsense, if you're good enough then you're good enough. Reached #1 this season and won another title to prove it wasn't a fluke success, in the weakest section though he's unlikely to take anyone lightly. Mark Selby 9.2 shouldn't be shorter, though his recent form is improving, he still falters far too much near the winning line to be third favourite in a strong field and has to come through Ding Junhui (12) before meeting Robertson which won't be an easy task. Ding's record at the Crucible stinks but has to end sometime and, though his form in rankers this year has suffered a dip from 09/10, another win at a major at Wembley showed he's still a big threat at the most important tournaments.

Chasers: 2005 world champion, 2009 finalist and 2008 UK champion, the price on offer for Shaun Murphy 24) looks far too generous given he's got the course and distance form. How he can be around four times the price of O'Sullivan in the same draw, having had a better season and better results in Sheffield over the last couple of years, is beyond me. Stephen Maguire (25/1) has seen his form pick up recently, only tight defeats in the UK and Welsh to John Higgins have stopped him adding to his title-haul, but he's another one who has an inexplicable problem with performing his best at the Crucible and i'd like a little bit bigger than 25s considering he's in the stronger half of the draw. Allister Carter 30) is another with good course form, only O'Sullivan (at his best) and Robertson have managed to beat him in the last 3 years and he holds an 8-3 record since 2008. But I get the feeling this was a period of over-achievement rather than the norm, and he's since slipped to 8th in the rankings from being on the verge of #1 and I expect there are too many players he'd need to be off their game for him to stand a chance. Instead, the best priced of all the 'chasers' has to be GRAEME DOTT (40) - 2006 world-champion, two-time finalist, last player to beat favourite Higgins and also came a few pots away from beating him at the UK, 39/1 on this guy is a bit of an insult considering his strong record over the distance AND the fact he's landed in the top-half. Obviously capable of beating Carter, which would set up a meeting with Robertson in the quarters. This to me would be the match which determines the top-half finalist, as the momentum with which the winner would gain would be enough to see them past the 2nd quarter winner. Another strong candidate to make a run is Mark Allen (20/1), world and UK semi-finalist in the last couple of years, but he'd have to do it the hard way to win it: Qualifier/Maguire/Williams/Higgins just to reach the final and, like Maguire, has too much to do to justify his current price.

Outsiders: Can't take Marco Fu (66/1), Jamie Cope (66/1) or Ricky Walden (125/1) ... a combined 2 ranking titles and 1 world semi between them in their careers, though they've done well to hold top-16 spots, they can't be strongly considered in this field. Of the two oldies, I much prefer Peter Ebdon (100) to Stephen Hendry (80/1) - though Ebdon's ranking is so high mainly due to a kind draw in Glasgow, he shows more consistency these days than Hendry who seems to produce one solid result followed by a dire one. Selby demolished him in R2 last year and is seeded to meet him there again, and I don't see a different result. Ebdon is more likely to beat Ding, as i'm sure Peter would be aware of the pressures on Ding and making a QF would be such a big hurdle to overcome, Peter would make it as hard as possible for him to do so. Best price of the aforementioned biggies for me is RYAN DAY (66/1) - has to qualify first obviously but looked back to somewhere near his best at the Welsh Open and seems to be on a general upward curve again after a horror 09-10 season. Two times he's reached the last-eight at the Crucible (lost a tight one to Mark Allen in 2009) but now with the pressure off him, could well be able to break free from some of the shackles that have held him back in his career so far. No-one will enjoy drawing him, should he qualify, and if he lands in the top-half (Ebdon's R1 opponent ideally), this 66/1 could end up looking very big. Matthew Stevens (100/1) has more than likely missed his greatest chance at winning the tournament but once he's at the venue, is a worthy threat - like Day, showed good form in Newport and has got himself close to the top-16 again after a long while out. Judd Trump (66/1), though a future champion for sure, is far too short here, having qualified once in his career and generally struggling in front of the TV cameras, I don't envisage things changing all of a sudden on the biggest stage of all, unless he gets a good run going in Beijing next month.

So my expert picks (as of 22nd February 2011) are:

Neil Robertson @ 9.8
Graeme Dott @ 40
Ryan Day @ 66/1

Feel free to share your opinions and we'll see in 10 weeks time who nailed their choices <cool>

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby Bourne

Gouldy 125/1 <ok> I admit no-one will fancy facing him but is he capable of reigning in his 'flamboyant' style when it matters later in the tournament ? I can't see him being able to pot any pots of lampshades for the full 5 matches to be a genuine contender ...

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby GJ

fair point on gouldy he isnt a real all rounder is he so if the potting goes abit he could find trouble in latter stages

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby Wildey

Smart wrote:
Casey wrote:I will be having a big slice on Ding at 12/1

Ding and Casey = easy money :excited:


I have a feeling about DING this time. <ok>

it is definitely the year i feel he can do it....

hes been 2nd,3rd or 4th fave for the last 3 years but he wasn't even on the radar for me but this year he definitely is.

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby Bourne

Best prices after World qualifiers, PTC Finals and World Draw:

1 John Higgins (6.8 from 6/1)
2 Mark Williams (9/1 - no change)
3 Neil Robertson (10.5 from 9.8)
4 Mark Selby (9 from 9.2)
5 Ding Junhui (11.5 from 12)
6 Stephen Maguire (25/1 - no change)
7 Shaun Murphy (22 from 24)
8 Allister Carter (32 from 30)

9 Graeme Dott (36 from 40)
10 Ronnie O'Sullivan (13/2 - no change)
11 Mark Allen (20/1 - no change)
12 Peter Ebdon (130 from 100)
13 Stephen Hendry (80/1 - no change)
14 Jamie Cope (70 from 66/1)
15 Ricky Walden (125/1 - no change)
16 Marco Fu (60 from 66/1)

And some of the shorter-priced qualifiers:

18 Matthew Stevens (80/1 from 100/1)
20 Ryan Day (80/1 from 66/1)
24 Judd Trump (80/1 from 65)

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby GJ

stevens available at 7/4 against allen good value :D

robbo 4/11 against trump :D

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby GJ

Bourne wrote:Do you think Robbo is a good price at 4/11 ?



yes i thought 1/4 at least to be honest

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby GJ

Bourne wrote:
GJ wrote:
Bourne wrote:Do you think Robbo is a good price at 4/11 ?



yes i thought 1/4 at least to be honest

<laugh> <ok>



at least overall i would say if i was marking it up it would be

robbo 1/4
trump 5/2

<ok>

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby Bourne

GJ wrote:
Bourne wrote:
GJ wrote:
Bourne wrote:Do you think Robbo is a good price at 4/11 ?



yes i thought 1/4 at least to be honest

<laugh> <ok>



at least overall i would say if i was marking it up it would be

robbo 1/4
trump 5/2

<ok>

If you wana put £100 up on betfair @ 1.25 when the markets are up, be my guest :tvrky:

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby Wildey

40/1 on Dott is just stupid price and if i was going to bet thats by far the best price ever for a genuine chance and a proven winner over that distance.

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby GJ

Bourne wrote:
GJ wrote:
Bourne wrote:Do you think Robbo is a good price at 4/11 ?



yes i thought 1/4 at least to be honest

4/9 now :hyper:



hype in over drive

:boo:

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby Bourne

GJ wrote:
Bourne wrote:
GJ wrote:
Bourne wrote:Do you think Robbo is a good price at 4/11 ?



yes i thought 1/4 at least to be honest

4/9 now :hyper:



hype in over drive

:boo:

:play:

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby Bourne

Best prices after CL finals and China Open, penultimate event of the season:

1 John Higgins (6.8 - no change)
2 Mark Williams (11.5 from 9/1)
3 Neil Robertson (11 from 10.5)
4 Mark Selby (13/2 from 9)
5 Ding Junhui (9/1 from 11.5)
6 Stephen Maguire (32 from 25/1)
7 Shaun Murphy (18.5 from 22)
8 Allister Carter (30 from 32)

9 Graeme Dott (34 from 36)
10 Ronnie O'Sullivan (8.8 from 13/2)
11 Mark Allen (25/1 from 20/1)
12 Peter Ebdon (120 from 130)
13 Stephen Hendry (80/1 - no change)
14 Jamie Cope (66/1 from 70)
15 Ricky Walden (120 from 125/1)
16 Marco Fu (80 from 60)

And some of the shorter-priced qualifiers:

18 Matthew Stevens (70 from 80/1)
20 Ryan Day (90 from 80/1)
24 Judd Trump (40/1 from 80/1)

Unlikely for any of these to change much before the tournament so the top-8 favourites for the World Championships 2011 are likely to be: (seeding in brackets)

(1) John Higgins 6.8
(4) Mark Selby 13/2
(10) Ronnie O'Sullivan 8.8
(5) Ding Junhui 9/1
(3) Neil Robertson 11.0
(2) Mark Williams 11.5
(7) Shaun Murphy 18.5
(8) Allister Carter 30

Quite surprised that Williams' odds have lengthened based on his loss to Lee in China which was anything but a tame one ... At least two of those top-4 names will be gone before the semi-finals, so really you're looking at QUARTER-ONE and QUARTER-THREE as the best place to look for the bigger prices :hatoff:

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby Alex0paul

Smart wrote:Ding has come into 8/1, just as I was primed to place the bet. :irk:

Will watch thru the week for any movements, otherwise its Dotty at 25/1. :hmmm:


You can surely get better odds than that for Dott

Re: World Championships 2011: Odds-Analysis

Postby Smart

Alex0paul WC wrote:
Smart wrote:Ding has come into 8/1, just as I was primed to place the bet. :irk:

Will watch thru the week for any movements, otherwise its Dotty at 25/1. :hmmm:


You can surely get better odds than that for Dott


I bet on-line with Coral, they are offering 25/1.

:irk:

DING was 9/1 all week, sort myself out this morning with intention of sowing the seed and hey presto 8/1. :irk: