Womble wrote:Prop wrote:2 weeks…
Interesting qualifiers first, though. Judgement day, etc. I like those.
'Judgement Day' is good, before that likely a fair few matches deciding whether players stay on the Tour or have to head for Q School. And whether a couple of suspended players potentially keep Tour cards.
I did see if Oliver Lines, Dominic Dale, David Grace and Zhang Anda win their opening matches (against lower ranked players), they'll push suspended players Mark King and Lu Ning down to the last two spots for getting back on tour, but the next two players lower than Zhang Anda unless I've misunderstood have to win a couple of matches, one against a higher ranked opponent, to get past Mark King and Lu Ning (that's Hammad Miah and Mark Joyce). Xu Si and Stuart Carrington have to reach The Crucible to get past the suspended players but need a fair bit less to get into Top 64 if players above them lose early.
Lines is especially vulnerable if he loses his opening match - he's way down on the one year list so won't get back on the Tour by being one of the top four on the one year list who haven't made the Top 64, and I think Zhang Anda very vulnerable too, Dale and Grace a little less so. Andy Hicks and Wu Yize are almost safe, just vulnerable if they lose opening matches and lots of players below them have deep runs.
Looks like non Tour player Daniel Wells claims a tour card the hard way (by accumulating enough wins across the season) unless major runs by players behind him on the one year list, but he'll want to win opening match against Himanshu Jain to get closer to making that reality. Jimmy White is a bit behind Wells but probably no risk of not being offered a card if other players overtake him.
I think a possible battle for the last two (maybe three) 'best one year list' spots ... Hammad Miah and Xu Si in those positions now but might reach the Top 64 with an opening win (freeing up a space or two) ... or be overtaken following an opening loss, with Mark Joyce and Stuart Carrington possible beneficiaries and it's probably the only route back on tour bar reaching The Crucible for Ian Burns and Louis Heathcote, who very much need enough other players to slip up. A few other players could claim a spot with a mass of the previously mentioned players losing opening matches and a deep run themselves (Fraser Patrick, Steven Hallworth, Marco Fu, Ross Muir, Mitchell Mann, Mark Davis, Alexander Ursenbacher) - but fairly improbable.
I find it's quite good to be aware of these 'wider' issues when players are in qualifying matches, it can for certain account for either nervous play or determined attitudes.