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Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Juddernaut88

SnookerFan wrote:
HappyCamper wrote:https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3_TvpBwSZDM



I had a dream that I met Kylie Minogue a few months ago. We decided to go for a pint, then when we were in the pub she decided to get everybody singing; "I should be so lucky."


Did you get lucky with her?

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby SnookerFan

Juddernaut88 wrote:
SnookerFan wrote:
HappyCamper wrote:https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3_TvpBwSZDM



I had a dream that I met Kylie Minogue a few months ago. We decided to go for a pint, then when we were in the pub she decided to get everybody singing; "I should be so lucky."


Did you get lucky with her?


Nah, we just had a drink and a sing-a-long.

Lovely woman.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Iranu

SnookerEd25 wrote:
Juddernaut88 wrote:Realistically Selby and Mark Allen have been the luckiest. Selby fluked black in a re-spotted black which should count as double. Mark Allen has a huge fluke in a deciding frame which he took advantage of.
One of Judds flukes against Higgins was an unwanted one which left him in an awkward position.


I kind of agree about Mark Allen, but it was the first red at 0-0; he still had an awful lot to do & deserves respect for doing it.

For Murphy to make a bitchy comment about ‘fluking frame ball’ was a bit childish I thought (something I think about Shaun more than most other players)

Since when could the first red be construed as frame ball?

To be fair to Murphy I think he was probably ribbing Allen because they’re good mates. Doubt he would have said that if it were anyone else. Because he went on to say, “That’s the only way he can beat me.”

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby SnookerEd25

Fair enough, I must have mis-construed it. Much as I admire Shaun's play when he's on song, I always think he has ulterior motives off the table.

But in this case, it seems I was wrong.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Iranu

SnookerEd25 wrote:Fair enough, I must have mis-construed it. Much as I admire Shaun's play when he's on song, I always think he has ulterior motives off the table.

I agree with this in the main.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

Trump vs Maguire Flukes

Frame 1
Trump 1-13 Red
Maguire 13-56 Red (possible shot to nothing, won frame)

Frame 3
Maguire 14-42 Red (possible shot to nothing)
Frame 10
Maguire 45-72 Brown (out of a snooker, won frame)
Frame 12
Maguire 52-31 Red (double, not sure whether to count it)
Frame 15
Maguire 41-70 Green (last green, one snooker to two snooker required)

Total fluke standings thus far (flukes/frame):
Roberston* 1/14
Maguire 0/14-> 5/29
Higgins* 2/13
Trump* 2/13 -> 3/28
Yan* 1/15
Selby 2/15
Murphy* 2/17
Allen 1/17

*final fluke count

In terms of flukes per frame Higgins is the current champion on 2/13. For the second round match Maguire has just overtaken Trump with 5/29 as compared to 3/28. Maguire also shoots into the lead in terms of total number of flukes despite having none in the first round.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

Allen vs Selby Flukes

Frame 7
Selby 0-1 Red (laid a snooker)
Selby END SCORE Yellow (fluked out of a snooker)

Total fluke standings thus far (flukes/frame):
Roberston* 1/14
Maguire 0/14-> 5/29
Higgins* 2/13
Trump* 2/13 -> 3/28
Yan* 1/15
Selby* 2/15 -> 4/26
Murphy* 2/17
Allen 1/17 -> 1/28

*final fluke count

In terms of flukes per frame Higgins is the current champion on 2/13. For the second round match Maguire has just overtaken Trump with 5/29 as compared to 3/28. Maguire also shoots into the lead in terms of total number of flukes despite having none in the first round.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

Allen vs Maguire Flukes

Frame 10
Maguire 23-59 Yellow (final yellow, possibly a speculative doulbe)
Frame 16
Allen 38-58 Red (out of a snooker, looked sheepish)

Total fluke standings thus far (flukes/frame):
Roberston* 1/14
Maguire* 0/14-> 5/29 -> 6/45 = 13.3% (3s.f.)
Higgins* 2/13 = 15.4%
Trump* 2/13 -> 3/28 = 10.7%
Yan* 1/15 = 6.67%
Selby* 2/15 -> 4/26 = 15.3%
Murphy* 2/17 = 11.8%
Allen* 1/17 -> 1/28 -> 2/44 = 4.55%

*final fluke count

The results are in and Higgins wins the title of luckiest player in the 2020 Tour Championship despite going out in the first round. He narrowly pipped Selby by a tenth of a percent. Maguire comes in third, although if we'd included types of luck other than just fluked pots I'm sure he would be ranked higher.

The big surprise is that Trump only got a middle table result, despite his reputation. Remarkably Allen was the runaway least lucky player with only 2 flukes in 44 frames!

Thanks again to BSP for counting assistance, and I hope people found this interesting and/or fun.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby SnookerFan

I think in regard to Judd's flukes, it's partly the way he hits the balls.

I know we've probably discussed this before, but he hits them so hard and with such force, that if he misses the pot it's more likely to fly into another pocket than some other players.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Holden Chinaski

SnookerFan wrote:I think in regard to Judd's flukes, it's partly the way he hits the balls.

I know we've probably discussed this before, but he hits them so hard and with such force, that if he misses the pot it's more likely to fly into another pocket than some other players.

Yes, of course. Combine that with the fact that he goes for more pots than other players and it's not that crazy he gets flukes.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby Holden Chinaski

Badsnookerplayer wrote:Not proof but decent evidence that people saying Judd gets more flukes than others are wrong. Exactly what most people said all along.

Thank you McManusfan

You know very well that one little tournament, without a crowd even, is no proof at all. You need to do this for at least a year. Many people have said Judd gets a lot of flukes over the years, it has been obvious and also not that crazy when you look at how he plays.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby SnookerFan

Badsnookerplayer wrote:Not proof but decent evidence that people saying Judd gets more flukes than others are wrong. Exactly what most people said all along.

Thank you McManusfan


By most people, do you mean yourself?

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

It's a shame a player like Mark Williams or Marco Fu wasn't in this tourney, as they are more known to float balls in. It would have been interesting to see if this translated into less fluked pots.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby McManusFan

SnookerFan wrote:TWITTER ATTACK!

reanne evans
@evans_reanne
Well done Maguire. Tell me he’s not a proper snooker player


Is that something anyone says? I always though Maguire was respected, even if he's underachieved a little.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby TheRocket

McManusFan wrote:
SnookerFan wrote:TWITTER ATTACK!

reanne evans
@evans_reanne
Well done Maguire. Tell me he’s not a proper snooker player


Is that something anyone says? I always though Maguire was respected, even if he's underachieved a little.


When Mags had his breakthrough in 2004 he looked like a fantastic player.
Pretty sure he could have had similar career stats to Murphy but Mags wasted too many years and didnt commit to practising enough.

Re: Luckiest Player of the 2020 Tour Championship

Postby chengdufan

McManusFan wrote:Allen vs Maguire Flukes

Frame 10
Maguire 23-59 Yellow (final yellow, possibly a speculative doulbe)
Frame 16
Allen 38-58 Red (out of a snooker, looked sheepish)

Total fluke standings thus far (flukes/frame):
Roberston* 1/14
Maguire* 0/14-> 5/29 -> 6/45 = 13.3% (3s.f.)
Higgins* 2/13 = 15.4%
Trump* 2/13 -> 3/28 = 10.7%
Yan* 1/15 = 6.67%
Selby* 2/15 -> 4/26 = 15.3%
Murphy* 2/17 = 11.8%
Allen* 1/17 -> 1/28 -> 2/44 = 4.55%

*final fluke count

The results are in and Higgins wins the title of luckiest player in the 2020 Tour Championship despite going out in the first round. He narrowly pipped Selby by a tenth of a percent. Maguire comes in third, although if we'd included types of luck other than just fluked pots I'm sure he would be ranked higher.

The big surprise is that Trump only got a middle table result, despite his reputation. Remarkably Allen was the runaway least lucky player with only 2 flukes in 44 frames!

Thanks again to BSP for counting assistance, and I hope people found this interesting and/or fun.


Kudos to McManus fan and bsp for their work on this.
Sterling effort well appreciated!