Tour Survival 2015 - poor progress by most new players?

Has anyone else noticed how poorly most of the players who gained or regained a Tour spot from the 2013/14 season are doing?

The excellent performances of Gary Wilson and David Morris, and the early season good performance of Kyren Wilson, gave me the impression initially that the 'class of 2013' were doing well, but ...

If we take next years likely 'cut-off' for the Top 64 to be similar to this year, and guess that this year somewhere around the £48000 mark will be the 2 year total for 64th place (prior to the World Championship it's £43902), then players might be considered 'on target' if they've earned £24000 by the end of this season. Certainly they might hope to be getting towards that and hoping that a little improvement will get them to about £48000.

Wilson and Morris are already closing in on £48,000 and Kyren Wilson's total so far of £29,752 looks healthy.

Then there's Noppon Saengkham, Lĭ Háng and Stuart Carrington, all 'on target' at around the £24,000 mark - none of them can afford a drop off in form though.

Then there's quite a gap.

Needing increasing amounts of improvement are Lǚ Hàotiān (£16,600), Alex Davies (£14,694), John Astley (£13,110) and Joe Swail (£10,610). They'll have to have a really good 2014/15 season if they are to reach the Top 64.

The money earned by Andrew Pagett, Hammad Miah, Chris Wakelin, Vinnie Calabrese and Chris Norbury (between £9000 and £5000 so far) would leave them well short even if next season they had as good a season as Kyren Wilson has had this season.

And then there's 21 players who have yet to win £5000 total, and to reach the Top 64 by the end of next season they will have to perform better next season than Gary Wilson and David Morris performed this season ...

So was this a particularly poor 'class' ? Or is this the likely normal pattern now with flat draws and new players starting a large proportion of their matches (particularly where there are larger amounts of money at stake), against Top 64 players?

Hoping at least some of these players step it up at the World Championship and get themselves a lot closer to the totals they need, but it looks like a lot of players will be needing good seasons in PTC competition.

I think will be some improvement in form for some players after a season of tour experience. Look at Scott Donaldson, who made only £4,064 in 2012/13, yet has made over £40,000 this season. And to a lesser extent Joel Walker who made £1,969 in 2012/13 and has made over £28,000 this season (although Walker has been rescued by the PTC list, rather than making it into the top 64).

Good point re Donaldson, hope there's at least one player going to emerge in a similar way next season.

I guess I'd expected more of these new players to be progressing than in the group of players who are just finishing their 2 years ('the class of 2012'). nine players from that group currently in the top 64 - Donaldson, Maflin, Advani, Mehta, Lawler, Poomjaeng, Un-Nooh, Cáo Yǔpéng and (just) Tián Péngfēi. Luca Brecel is currently 65th and Sam Baird 66th. So eleven in or a near miss, whereas at the moment for the 'class of 2013' its looking like being six that are in or a near miss.

Even though I'm slightly sceptical about the flat draws, I'd still thought the 'class of 2013' would do better than the 'class of 2012' as a result, hoping something changes soon ...

Some players will handle the pressure fine, it just takes a year or two getting used to it.

However, some will collapse under the pressure and probably aren't suited for life as a professional snooker player.

I'd only worry about a new player if they didn't show any improvement after 2 years, that should be sufficient time to determine if a player has the game/bottle or no.

How has class of 2012 done? Those would be the players I'd expect to have improved by now, not so much those who've only had a year on the circuit.

Sickpotter wrote:
I'd only worry about a new player if they didn't show any improvement after 2 years, that should be sufficient time to determine if a player has the game/bottle or no.

How has class of 2012 done? Those would be the players I'd expect to have improved by now, not so much those who've only had a year on the circuit.

For the 'class of 2012' there were 35 new or returning players. Nine are currently in the Top 64, with a further two players on the verge of it. Including those two players, of the 9 players set to retain their places via the Order of Merit route, 7 are from the 'class of 2012' (5 are 'Q Schoolers') - as are the two players currently positioned to just miss out.

Not sure what this tells us but ... six of the World Championship opening round matches that finished yesterday featured players from the 'class of 2012' who are set to lose their Tour place playing against 'class of 2013' players, with the 'class of 2012' winning 5 of the matches.

In the Last 128 stage of this years worlds, 15 of the 32 matches features a player on his second year of a 2 year tour card versus a player on his first year.

11 of these ties were won by the 2nd year pro, with the first yearers winning 4.

A few other stats:

3 first yearers played those who dropped down from the top64 at the start of the season. 2 (Borg and Figueiredo) won.

The remaining first yearers played amongst themselves.

Progressing to the next round are:

1 Former Top64 (from 4, 25%)
15 Second yearers (from 21, 71%)
13 First yearers (from 32, 41%)
3 Amateurs (from 7, 43%)

Top 30 money earners from the 'class of 2012' alongside the top 30 from the 'class of 2013' (yes, I know Kyren Wilson and Robin Hull haven't finished yet!) (edit - this is money earned in their respective first years of course)

Nothing wrong with the first half dozen. For me the alarming drop-offs are from 7th down, and even more so from 12th


1 Rod Lawler 48,423 Gary Wilson 42576
2 Kurt Maflin 44,991 Kyren Wilson 41752
3 Cao Yupeng 37,408 David Morris 40933
4 Dechawat Poomjaeng 29,741 Stuart Carrington 31677
5 Pankaj Advani 25,077 Noppon Saengkham 24938
6 Luca Brecel 23,751 Li Hang 24894
7 Ian Burns 21,833 Lu Haotian 16600
8 Thepchaiya Un-Nooh 21,447 Joe Swail 15610
9 Aditya Mehta 19,365 Robin Hull 15600
10 Sam Baird 18,095 Alex Davies 14694
11 Thanawat Thirapongpaiboon 16,605 John Astley 14110
12 Liam Highfield 15,846 Andrew Pagett 8916
13 Zhang Anda 12,995 Hammad Miah 8860
14 Chen Zhe 12,804 Vinnie Calabrese 8700
15 Tian Pengfei 12,183 Chris Wakelin 8249
16 Simon Bedford 10,995 Alex Borg 6166
17 Tony Drago 10,373 Chris Norbury 5167
18 Paul Davison 9,647 Igor Figueiredo 5000
19 Robbie Williams 8,460 Andrew Norman 4960
20 Craig Steadman 6,965 Ratchayothin Yotharuck 4850
21 Michael Wasley 6,764 Elliot Slessor 4818
22 Li Yan 5,678 Ross Muir 4302
23 David Grace 4,691 Cao Xinlong 3650
24 Scott Donaldson 4,064 James Cahill 2000
25 M.O’Donnell 3,868 Jin Long 2000
26 Daniel Wells 3,486 Fraser Patrick 1749
27 P.Suwannawat 3,300 Patrick Einsle 1749
28 Sean O’Sullivan 2,282 Alexander Ursenbacher 1600
29 Joel Walker 1,969 Lee Page 1260
30 Jamie O’Neill 200 Allan Taylor 833