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In favour of flat 128s

Postby gninnur karona

It is much-repeated that lower-ranked players would benefit from the top 16 being seeded directly through to the last 32 for all events. There are two demonstrable reasons why this is false.

First, prize money distribution. Let's look at the 2021-22 UK Championship. Neil Robertson and Shaun Murphy won zero prize money after failing to beat amateurs in their opening matches. Mark Williams, Yan Bingtao, Ding Junhui and Mark Selby fell at the second hurdle receiving £6500 for their first round victories. Six of the top 16 thus received a total of £26000 prize money whereas they would have received a minimum of £72000 if they had been given a pass directly to the last 32. So in simple terms giving the top 16 a direct place in the last 32 would have resulted in a redistribution of £46000 from players outside the top 16 to the elite (that's a £92000 swing). And for this extra £46000 the top 16 would have done absolutely nothing.

Second, that lowly-ranked players would all benefit from avoiding having to play the top 16 in the opening rounds. This is nonsense. In a flat 128 draw with 32 seeds (the most common seeding system) the top 16 have to win a total of 32 matches to reach the last 32. In those 32 matches they will face 32 of the 96 players ranked outside the top 32. So, on average, on the false assumption that Shaun Murphy and company never lose to any lower-ranked player let alone an amateur, in a random draw for the non-seeded players a lower-ranked player will meet one of the top 16 before the last 32 once every three tournaments. Some players of course can suffer a series of unlucky draws but that is entirely the result of WST/WPBSA never having been bothered to take the necessary steps to protect the lower-ranked players. It's as straightforward to organise flat 128 draws so that no player ever meets one of the top 16 in the first two rounds in consecutive events as it is to seed a top 16.

Let's look at what the change to the 2022-23 UK Championship format (assuming nevertheless an entirely pre-determined draw and strict seeding according to ranking is retained) means for each group of players. I assume that all matches are won by the higher ranked player apart from the player in question. Comparisons between the new UK system and flat 128 draws. Note that under the 2021-22 UK Championship format only players seeded 49-80 and 113-128 could meet a top 16 seed before the round of 32.

The top 16. Finished the early doors banana skins, guaranteed income. Two less matches, twelve less frames, to win to lift the title.
17-48. Note that Zhao Xintong and Luca Brecel fell into this category 2021-22. Two match route to the last 32, the first more difficult. Examples (1) 26 faces 71 then 39 rather than 103 then 39; (2) 40 faces 57 then 25 rather than 89 then 25.
49-80. Three matches before the last 32 - one additional round against a lower-ranked opponent then a more difficult match followed by an easier match. Examples (1) 56 faces 105 then 41 then 24 instead of facing 73 then 9; (2) 71 faces 90 then 26 then 39 instead of 58 then 7.
81-112. Four matches before the last 32 - two additional rounds the first against a lower-ranked opponent then a round against a higher-ranked opponent then meet in rounds 3 and 4 who they would have met in rounds 2 and 1. Examples (1) 86 faces 1 of 113-144 then 75 then 22 then 43 instead of facing 43 then 22; (2) 100 faces 1 of 113-144 then 61 then 36 then 29 instead of facing 29 then 36. Andy Hicks began his run to the 2021-22 QF by beating Liang Wenbo and Michael Holt. They would have been his opponents in rounds 3 and 4 if he had won his opening two matches under the 2022-23 format.
113-128. Four matches before the last 32 expected to lose all of them - two additional rounds. Note meeting the same opponent in round 2. Note also that these are the only players drawn at random in the 2021-22 format and presumably will be again in 2022-23. These comparisons thus use the player drawn 'in the position of'. Examples (1) '119' faces 106 then 55 then 42 then 23 instead of 10 then 55; (2) '128' faces 97 then 64 then 33 then 32 instead of facing 1 then 64.
129-144. Did not participate 2021-22. Shaun Murphy banking on all of them losing one of their opening four matches.

So the big winners from the change of format are unsurprisingly the top 16. 17-48 and 81-112 are clear losers. 49-80 and 113-128 avoid playing the top 16 before the last 32 but on balance are also losers.

Flat 128 draws are one of Barry Hearn's successes. Since his retirement snooker has been heading in the wrong direction with changes seemingly geared to pamper the top 16 (another example, qualifier events held weeks and sometimes months ahead of their main event result in keeping a maximum number of lower-ranked players away from main event venues).

Shaun Murphy ranted that he shouldn't have to play Si Jiahui in last season's UK Championship. WST/WPBSA have eventually ruled in his favour. £12000 undeserved guaranteed extra diverted from the lower-ranked to Shaun Murphy this coming season.

Contrary to WST/WPBSA claims the format changes to the UK Championship for the 2022-23 season devalue the competition. If WST/WPBSA have an objective to re-establish the UK Championship as a 'Tier 1' event then one way to genuinely achieve that would be a flat 128 with best of 19s throughout.

Re: In favour of flat 128s

Postby lhpirnie

Yes I agree with most of that. It is notable that lower-ranked players have complained for several years about prize money distribution and have been largely ignored, yet as soon as Shaun Murphy complains about having to play an amateur (rather than getting a bye), the system is changed to place him in the L32 directly. Si Jiahui's voice was never heard. Their worry about top players playing too much and getting jaded has been addressed nicely.

The problem with cocooning the star players is that it guarantees a decline in snooker's appeal as those players decline. Almost all of the top guys are late-30's or 40's.

Re: In favour of flat 128s

Postby KrazeeEyezKilla

This format change coming straight after a Zhao Xintong-Luca Brecel final says a lot about the priorities of both WST and particularly the BBC.

lhpirnie wrote:The problem with cocooning the star players is that it guarantees a decline in snooker's appeal as those players decline. Almost all of the top guys are late-30's or 40's.


From the point of view of the BBC it's makes more sense to have the likes of Murphy, Hawkins or Allen in a major final as they are more established recognisable names than Zhao or Luca. From any other perspective it's the opposite.

Re: In favour of flat 128s

Postby SnookerEd25

Bit of a double-edged sword with television dictating the structure of a tournament and, effectively, weighting it heavily towards who they want in the later stages (the BBC wet their pants about the ‘class of 92’ all getting to the World SFs, for example and ITV’s ‘no play on Saturday afternoons’ rule) yet without mainstream TV coverage the game gets pushed ever further to the margins. And once the recognisable names fade away, so will the interest of the casual fan as they haven’t had the opportunity to build a ‘rapport’ with fresher, younger players. So they turn off, TV companies reduce their coverage and tha game suffers again.