Difficult to say but I do think Carter will beat Bingham tomorrow. I think Carter or Ding would have been the two players any seed would have desperately wanted to avoid - (I'd dare say it's the closest thing to playing an unseeded top 16 player) - especially the World Champion with the pressure and expectation of being first one up on Saturday morning. With a relatively straight forward draw - which can prove tricky at the Crucible Theatre a defending champion gives an opportunity to get settled in. - Facing a two time finalist who's more than capable of putting on a good run (and remember hasn't lost in the last 32 of a World Championship since 2006 is a different matter.
If he does get through tomorrow I'd reckon he's certainly got a chance of the quarter-finals - where John Higgins may prove a step too far. Few Crucible champions have ever got to the one table in their first defence, so that would be a fantastic achievement.