The Crucible Countdown !!!!

snookerlover wrote:

Andre147 wrote:

snookerlover wrote:Anyone calling Carter fodder is silly. He's a very talented player just hasn't always lived up to it. I still think he could win a world title.

If he doesn't face Ronnie along the way, yes.

Oh dear the fan-boys are out. For that to happen this year he'd most likely have to face the player who knocked Ronnie out or the player who knocked the player who knocked Ronnie out in the final, it stands to reason that his world championship would be just as good against that player as it would be if it had been Ronnie. You have to be better than another player to beat them, so if he does play anyone but Ronnie in the final (should he make it that far, and it's a massive should) it's as equal and achievement as if he'd played Ronnie.

fan-boy? You obviosuly don't know me well around here.

When did I say it wasn't an equal achievment?

Anyone who wins a World Title deserves it, period. I just said that I don't think he can beat Ronnie at the Crucible. You are seeing things which I clearly didn't write.

snookerlover wrote:

Andre147 wrote:

snookerlover wrote:Anyone calling Carter fodder is silly. He's a very talented player just hasn't always lived up to it. I still think he could win a world title.

If he doesn't face Ronnie along the way, yes.

Oh dear the fan-boys are out. For that to happen this year he'd most likely have to face the player who knocked Ronnie out or the player who knocked the player who knocked Ronnie out in the final, it stands to reason that his world championship would be just as good against that player as it would be if it had been Ronnie. You have to be better than another player to beat them, so if he does play anyone but Ronnie in the final (should he make it that far, and it's a massive should) it's as equal and achievement as if he'd played Ronnie.

take that stick out of your bottom and lighten up.

Andy Spark wrote:Who will be favourite out of Bingham and Carter? I fancy Carter to win. But a great match to start with, pretty much 50:50.

Yes, but I can think Bingo will win it.

I'd be surprised though if at least 17 frames aren't played.

Just hope Mann can easily get into the match and not let the nerves get the better of him, like most have on their Crucible debut. Allen will be very tough, a dark horse for me this tournament and one I predict to reach Semis, or at least the Quarters.

snookerlover wrote: You have to be better than another player to beat them.

I would disagree. "Better"? Mark Johnston Allen managed to beat Hendry three times out of three. Are you seriously suggesting that he beat him because he was a better player than Hendry, even solely on the three days? Luck plays a very important role in snooker.

Andre is correct about Ali Carter. The only time Carter ever beat Ronnie, it was in the Championship League.

Best of five, no crowd watching, group phase so losing wouldn't have meant he was knocked out. It wasn't possible for there to be less pressure on him in that match.

Carter won't ever beat Ronnie in a tournament match, ever. And you're talking to a person who doesn't like Ronnie, and will enjoy the sport more once he's retired.

I watched a lot of the matches at ponds forge and I don't think the qualifiers are that good this year. I would be surprised if more than 3 of them win their 1R matches. Even the Ding - Gould match can go either way. I can't see Wilson beating Perry, who is a very solid player and will be fresher. Probably Ding, Carter and McManus have the best chance to progress to the R16.

SavoMilosevic wrote:I watched a lot of the matches at ponds forge and I don't think the qualifiers are that good this year. I would be surprised if more than 3 of them win their 1R matches. Even the Ding - Gould match can go either way. I can't see Wilson beating Perry, who is a very solid player and will be fresher. Probably Ding, Carter and McManus have the best chance to progress to the R16.

What about your favourite player MJW?

He has a very tough opener against Dotty, and MJW is struggling for good form.

Andy Spark wrote:

snookerlover wrote: You have to be better than another player to beat them.

I would disagree. "Better"? Mark Johnston Allen managed to beat Hendry three times out of three. Are you seriously suggesting that he beat him because he was a better player than Hendry, even solely on the three days? Luck plays a very important role in snooker.

Saying it was luck suggests that Johnston Allen's three victories over Hendry were absolute flukes.

I see it more of MJA being a bogey player for Hendry. It's possible for even a player like Hendry to have a player that he struggles against, or can't get used to the style of.

Don't make MJA better than Hendry, but it seems weird that you'd get that lucky three times. MJA must've been a decent player and a danger to Hendry, even if he wasn't in the same class.

Andre147 wrote:

SavoMilosevic wrote:I watched a lot of the matches at ponds forge and I don't think the qualifiers are that good this year. I would be surprised if more than 3 of them win their 1R matches. Even the Ding - Gould match can go either way. I can't see Wilson beating Perry, who is a very solid player and will be fresher. Probably Ding, Carter and McManus have the best chance to progress to the R16.

What about your favourite player MJW?

He has a very tough opener against Dotty, and MJW is struggling for good form.

I don't want to jinx him, but I think he should win. Dott is struggling with his game and confidence even more in the last few seasons and MJW is not in his best form, but he can still show his class from time to time and score heavily when he gets a chance amongst the balls.

Jeez, thank buck I've got Bingham tickets.

The other table has Ebdon on it.

For me, MJW v Dott is the big questionmark of the draw.

Williams is not in good form all the season, but Dott didn't show something special in the qualifying rounds, even Brandon Sargeant gave him a hard match. On the other hand, I remember last year's in form-MJW collapsing against Stevens, so...

White v Baird is another unpredictable match. White must be relieved that he avoided a bigger name, but the same goes to Baird, as it's the less difficult draw he could have.

How do people see Barry Hawkins vs Zhang Anda going?

I notice the first session of Mags vs Angles clashes with Murphy vs McGill.

I was hoping the BBC would show the first session of Mags so I could watch it in my hotel room, as I have tickets to the second session.

But being that Murphy and McGill is the choice of the first round, and the BBC has a massive erection for Murphy, I can't see that happen.

SnookerFan wrote:I notice the first session of Mags vs Angles clashes with Murphy vs McGill.

I was hoping the BBC would show the first session of Mags so I could watch it in my hotel room, as I have tickets to the second session.

But being that Murphy and McGill is the choice of the first round, and the BBC has a massive erection for Murphy, I can't see that happen.

Take a laptop. Surely they are streaming both tables online?

Trump/Ronnie final will be mouth watering.

snookerlover wrote:

SnookerFan wrote:I notice the first session of Mags vs Angles clashes with Murphy vs McGill.

I was hoping the BBC would show the first session of Mags so I could watch it in my hotel room, as I have tickets to the second session.

But being that Murphy and McGill is the choice of the first round, and the BBC has a massive erection for Murphy, I can't see that happen.

Take a laptop. Surely they are streaming both tables online?

I aint got a laptop, I could take my tablet. But it's rubbish at streaming. It really doesn't like showing me live stuff over the BBC website. Which is odd, as it has no problem showing me stuff on the I-Player.

Maybe I'll grab a few pints in the Old Monk, or somewhere. See if I can the matches on Eurosport.

Or see if there's any last minute returns at the box office.

All this talk about quarter 2 is BS , judds 1/8 is brutal I agree but robbos is as good as it gets at this level.

GJ wrote:All this talk about quarter 2 is BS , judds 1/8 is brutal I agree but robbos is as good as it gets at this level.

Did Robbo retweet you the other day?

GJ wrote:Perry isn't exactly a crucible specialist if he isn't a favourable draw not sure who is

Holt will be a bit better than Noppon Saengkham!

Baird has lucked in again. Easy passage, one of the easier 1st rounds.

Ronnie will love this draw.

SnookerFan wrote:

GJ wrote:All this talk about quarter 2 is BS , judds 1/8 is brutal I agree but robbos is as good as it gets at this level.

Did Robbo retweet you the other day?

he liked my tweet

GJ wrote:

SnookerFan wrote:

GJ wrote:All this talk about quarter 2 is BS , judds 1/8 is brutal I agree but robbos is as good as it gets at this level.

Did Robbo retweet you the other day?

he liked my tweet

You told him to retweet, though. What a bastard!

Master Blaster wrote:

GJ wrote:Perry isn't exactly a crucible specialist if he isn't a favourable draw not sure who is

Holt will be a bit better than Noppon Saengkham!

Baird has lucked in again. Easy passage, one of the easier 1st rounds.

Ronnie will love this draw.

Holt is the easiest draw in long format no unknown quantity just a mental midget.

Good matches all around! See you Saturday morning my friends!

GJ wrote:

Master Blaster wrote:

GJ wrote:Perry isn't exactly a crucible specialist if he isn't a favourable draw not sure who is

Holt will be a bit better than Noppon Saengkham!

Baird has lucked in again. Easy passage, one of the easier 1st rounds.

Ronnie will love this draw.

Holt is the easiest draw in long format no unknown quantity just a mental midget.

I agree about Holt but if Robbo messes up again.........Holty could be a shock winner.

Bingham could not have been handed a more difficult opener. Ali Carter (much like Ding) has been going from strength to strength this season, getting back to form with almost every tournament he's played in.

For me, one of the more interesting matches is ROS v Gilbert. ROS is favourite yes, but that's a banana skin if there ever was one. The same goes for Robbo v Holt -- Robbo is definite favourite, but there's been times this season where Holt has looked very good; same as Gilbert, it'll depend on which form shows up on the day. EDIT: this paragraph may raise eyebrows if you have a raging hard-on for either of the two seeds mentioned.

-- On that discussion about Carter a ways back in this thread, his poor record against ROS is because for me, he goes into his shell too often and I don't know why. I've always thought Ali plays better when he plays aggressively. He tried this ultra-negative voodoo safety dross in 2012 that rather amazingly got him to the final, but it imploded when he met ROS there. I remember Hendry calling him out for having the audacity to put ROS in the same kettle of fish as Mags (who he beat in the semis) because let's say it for what it is, anyone could get into Mags' head.

Anywho, good opening matches. I'm expecting decent stuff with 1 or 2 upsets.

Bingham will be knocked out first round; Trump will have a scare; Selby could also be a casualty.

Some good-looking matches.

Cheshire Cat wrote:Bingham could not have been handed a more difficult opener. Ali Carter (much like Ding) has been going from strength to strength this season, getting back to form with almost every tournament he's played in.

For me, one of the more interesting matches is ROS v Gilbert. ROS is favourite yes, but that's a banana skin if there ever was one. The same goes for Robbo v Holt -- Robbo is definite favourite, but there's been times this season where Holt has looked very good; same as Gilbert, it'll depend on which form shows up on the day. EDIT: this paragraph may raise eyebrows if you have a raging hard-on for either of the two seeds mentioned.

-- On that discussion about Carter a ways back in this thread, his poor record against ROS is because for me, he goes into his shell too often and I don't know why. I've always thought Ali plays better when he plays aggressively. He tried this ultra-negative voodoo safety dross in 2012 that rather amazingly got him to the final, but it imploded when he met ROS there. I remember Hendry calling him out for having the audacity to put ROS in the same kettle of fish as Mags (who he beat in the semis) because let's say it for what it is, anyone could get into Mags' head.

Anywho, good opening matches. I'm expecting decent stuff with 1 or 2 upsets.

Carter simply feels that Ronnie is a better player and the best ever. Remember the 'brilliant' comment when Ronnie did the legendary 92 clearance in their final? He's badly advised by Ebdon and co. I agree. But Flamingo can go on a run once in the groove so I expect Carter to turn this into a bore fest. Expect a lot of fist pumping if he wins.

It's very difficult to call any match. I expect half the seeds to drop out in round 1 but which 8 I couldn't say. White is gonna be under real pressure from Baird. Ronnie isn't safe as you say.

I only hope for the sake of snooker's popularity and wellbeing that we get Judd-Ronnie as the final. Judd's first or Ronnie's 6th would be hugely positive stories for the sport.

The bookies have the seeds as favourites to win in all the matches - except Ding v Gould, where they have installed Ding as favourite. The value of the odds suggest he's expected to win 2 out of 3 times in this match (67%).
Looking at all the matches, using the odds (and rounding up), the biggest 'cert' is Ronnie's game, with the most unpredictable being Kyren Wilson v Joe Perry.
First named player's expected chance of winning the game (percentage):

Ronnie O'Sullivan v David Gilbert 92%
Mark Allen v Mitchell Mann 90%
Neil Robertson v Michael Holt 86%
Mark Selby v Robert Milkins 84%
Judd Trump v Liang Wenbo 79%
Barry Hawkins v Zhang Anda 79%
Ricky Walden v Robbie Williams 77%
Shaun Murphy v Anthony McGill 76%
John Higgins v Ryan Day 70%
Marco Fu v Peter Ebdon 70%
Stephen Macguire v Alan McManus 68%
Michael White v Sam Baird 67%
Ding Junhui v Martin Gould 67%
Stuart Bingham v Ali Carter 61%
Mark Williams v Graeme Dott 58%
Joe Perry v Kyren Wilson 52%

Is it just me or does the bottom half of the draw look like a walkover compared to the top?