It is interesting. The thing to note in general is that someone who is going to reach the final at the Crucible is going to do it when they are relatively newish to the venue. The 26 players who've appeared at the final have done so for the first time in a combined total of 101 appearances at the Crucible, - making the average span of 3.88 appearances from your Crucible debut to reach the final.
Spencer 1st Appearance
DN Taylor 3rd
A Higgins 4th
101 appearances by 26 players - 3.88
That rules out several members of the current top 16 who have been in the past widely tipped to reach the final - Ding, Maguire, and Allen being probably the most high profile three. There are several exceptions to the rule, O'Sullivan took 9 appearances to make the final from 1993 to 2001.
So to who I think will be next Crucible debutant finalist - I think though he is actually been at the Crucible 7 times now with only appearing in one semi - Allen's the best of the current top 16 yet to make a Crucible final.
Of the new brigade, I think Brecel is the one who's currently in the best shape, he's got three runs to make the final left if you go on the 3.88 average and is someone who will have the experience of the venue.
Last edited by PLtheRef
on 20 Jan 2013, edited 1 time in total.