He doesn´t seem a stupid person. I don´t even bother to discuss with or about any stupid people. I am certainly not a stupid.
The funny thing is that when something like this happens people are suggesting the odds. But there is no such thing as a probability. Trust me. It is always just matter of what towards kind of things one plays the attention at. Take any sort of phone number for example. It is always that you can find something which reminds you of something. Some birth date, some logic, just something. So there really is no such thing as a probability. Play your attention towards something, and you always got something.
The real issue always is what kind of things should be discussed about. No the probabilities. Because there are so suchs. That´s not the real thing, something which could be understood with a witz. So I certainly agree with a few mates of mine who have complained that for years already. No-one can say how likely something is. Can´t estimate how likely Mark Selby for example wins the Worlds 2018. Just play your attention towards something you figure which could be usefull, and you always got something. Guaranteed.