I have created a mathematical model of the German Masters and Welsh Open which allows me to simulate the results of the events a number of times. The result of this is that O’Sullivan’s chances of staying in the Top 16 are estimated to be around 46% (see http://www.snookeranalyst.com/ronnie16/).
Further analysis demonstrates the importance of his 1st round match in the German Masters (against Andrew Higginson on Thursday). If he wins then his chances rise to 57%, but lose and they fall to 14% - he may well have to win the Welsh Open to retain his place.
In fact, by winning his 1st round match in both tournaments then he will be right in the mix again and one more victory could be enough to secure his place.
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