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The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible)

Postby Pink Ball

We all know it. We're 10 days in, the first two rounds of the World Championship have been completed, and one player is blazing a trail. Can they beaten? Surely not?

The tournament is over. And then they flop in the quarter finals.

While picking the best player of the first 10 days is always a matter of opinion, I thought it would be interesting to see if this is actually a trend that's been borne out over time, or is it all in our imagination? The best way of doing this - though it's by no means fool-proof, particularly when the 'title' has to be shared between multiple players - is to proclaim the player with the best frames differential after rounds one and two as 'The winner of the first 10 days of the World Championship'.

And my hunch has proven largely correct. Since the 32-player format was introduced in 1982, in the 40 editions since, the winner of the first 10 days has only gone on to win the tournament itself on only 12 occasions. Only one player, Stephen Hendry, has done it on multiple occasions: in 1993, 1994 and 1995, and even at that, he shared the title in 1995 with Peter Ebdon and Jimmy White. Hendry also won the first 10 days in 2005 (shared with Matthew Stevens) and 2012, but of course he did not win the World Championship in those years. His five 'wins' are a record.

And the stats suggest you're far better off being just a bit above average for the first 10 days. The third- and fourth-ranked players, most often, are the ones to go on to claim the ultimate title.

It will come as no surprise to hear that Neil Robertson is the joint leader when it comes to winning the first 10 days but then failing to win the World title. He did this in 2014 (shared with Dominic Dale), 2015 and 2019.

It's an unwanted record he shares with two other players. Matthew Stevens won the first 10 days in 2000, 2001 and 2005 (the latter shared with Hendry) but did not win the World title. John Higgins is the other record holder (he failed to convert in 1999, 2002 and 2016), but in his defence, he did convert in 2007 after winning the first 10 days.

Only 10 players in history have 'converted': Dennis Taylor (1985), Joe Johnson (1986, shared with Steve Davis), Steve Davis (1989), John Parrott (1991), Stephen Hendry (1993, 1994, 1995), Ken Doherty (1997), Mark Williams (2003), John Higgins (2007), Ronnie O'Sullivan (2020) and Mark Selby (2021).

Here's the full list of 'winners' in what is, largely, a roll of dishonour:

1982: Tony Knowles (+15) – actual winner was Alex Higgins (+6, eighth)
1983: Kirk Stevens (18) – actual winner was Steve Davis (8, joint fourth)
1984: Terry Griffiths (16) – actual winner was Steve Davis (15, second)
1985: Dennis Taylor (15)
1986: Joe Johnson and Steve Davis (14)
1987: Dene O’Kane (13) – actual winner was Steve Davis (12, second)
1988: Tony Drago (16) – actual winner was Steve Davis (14, third)
1989: Steve Davis (15)
1990: Steve Davis (15) – actual winner was Stephen Hendry (9, fourth)
1991: John Parrott (16)
1992: John Parrott (19) – actual winner was Stephen Hendry (10, joint third)
1993: Stephen Hendry (18)
1994: Stephen Hendry (20)
1995: Stephen Hendry, Jimmy White and Peter Ebdon (14)
1996: Ronnie O’Sullivan (16) – actual winner was Stephen Hendry (8, seventh)
1997: Ken Doherty (12)
1998: Jimmy White (16) – actual winner was John Higgins (6, joint seventh)
1999: John Higgins (17) – actual winner was Stephen Hendry (8, joint sixth)
2000: Matthew Stevens (17) – actual winner was Mark Williams (10, third)
2001: Matthew Stevens (17) – actual winner was Ronnie O’Sullivan (11, fifth)
2002: John Higgins (20) – actual winner was Peter Ebdon (12, sixth)
2003: Mark Williams (19)
2004: David Gray (11) – actual winner was Ronnie O’Sullivan (6, fourth)
2005: Stephen Hendry and Matthew Stevens (13) – actual winner was Shaun Murphy (10, fourth)
2006: Ken Doherty and Mark Williams (14) – actual winner was Graeme Dott (11, sixth)
2007: John Higgins (15)
2008: Stephen Maguire (13) – actual winner was Ronnie O’Sullivan (11, second)
2009: Ryan Day (14) – actual winner was John Higgins (6, joint sixth)
2010: Mark Allen and Mark Selby (14) – actual winner was Neil Robertson (6, joint fifth)
2011: Mark Selby (18) – actual winner was John Higgins (11, joint third)
2012: Stephen Hendry (15) – actual winner was Ronnie O’Sullivan (13, second)
2013: Michael White (14) – actual winner was Ronnie O’Sullivan (11, joint second)
2014: Neil Robertson and Dominic Dale (14) – actual winner was Mark Selby (5, ranked eighth)
2015: Neil Robertson (16) – actual winner was Stuart Bingham (11, ranked fourth)
2016: John Higgins (12) – actual winner was Mark Selby (6, ranked joint fourth)
2017: Stephen Maguire (18) – actual winner was Mark Selby (15, ranked second)
2018: Ding Junhui (16) – actual winner was Mark Williams (11, ranked fourth)
2019: Neil Robertson (16) – actual winner was Judd Trump (5, ranked joint sixth)
2020: Ronnie O’Sullivan (12)
2021: Mark Selby (15)
2022: Mark Williams (17) – actual winner was Ronnie O'Sullivan (14, ranked second)
Last edited by Pink Ball on 21 May 2022, edited 1 time in total.

Re: The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible

Postby orky

This is an interesting thread and relates very closely to a thread I've been meaning to start for a while now ;) but haven't got round to doing it yet. Your analyses goes by aggregate frames won and lost for a player in the first two rounds. I wouldn't necessarily define the favourite using this measure, instead I would look at standard produced in the first two rounds, which even then is partially subjective. Also you've got to take into account the quality of your opponents. But all in all, for me I never get excited if a player blitzes through their first two matches, because that in itself adds more pressure to that player as the expectation of winning the tournament is likely to increase.

Re: The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible

Postby Holden Chinaski

Pink Ball wrote:And the stats suggest you're far better off being just a bit above average for the first 10 days. The third- and fourth-ranked players, most often, are the ones to go on to claim the ultimate title.

Interesting. I think because the World Championship is such a marathon, it's probably best to save energy for the latter stages. The players who play their very best in the first 10 days might be burned out further in the tournament.

Re: The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible

Postby Holden Chinaski

orky wrote: Your analyses goes by aggregate frames won and lost for a player in the first two rounds. I wouldn't necessarily define the favourite using this measure, instead I would look at standard produced in the first two rounds, which even then is partially subjective. Also you've got to take into account the quality of your opponents..

Good point.

Re: The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible

Postby orky

Pink ball, it will be really interesting to see sir what your list looked like if you differentiated between standard alone, in the first two rounds. Of course that's so much more difficult to do than adding aggregate frames won and lost. From memory in 2019 Neil Robertson comfortably produced the best standard in the first two rounds but disappeared against Higgins in the quarter finals.

Re: The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible

Postby chengdufan

Stellar work Pink Ball :hatoff:

Very interesting analysis and I think with the size of the dataset the results have validity.

Knowing this, it will be most interesting to observe how this goes in the next few World Championships.

Re: The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible

Postby SnookerEd25

LDS wrote:Nice to see David Gray get mentioned, probably the most oft-forgotten of snooker's brief greats.


I don’t forget him. Well remember when he was being tipped as one of the stars of the future, well ahead of people like Selby, for example - whom he beat to win the Scottish Open in 2003, the first Ranking Event final for both.

Actually had a 6-1 H2H against Selby.

Re: The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible

Postby mick745

SnookerEd25 wrote:
LDS wrote:Nice to see David Gray get mentioned, probably the most oft-forgotten of snooker's brief greats.


I don’t forget him. Well remember when he was being tipped as one of the stars of the future, well ahead of people like Selby, for example - whom he beat to win the Scottish Open in 2003, the first Ranking Event final for both.

Actually had a 6-1 H2H against Selby.


When i think of David Gray i think of Joe Perry's bottle job in the UK semi-final when Perry lost after potting the winning ball then snookering himself on the last red.

Re: The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible

Postby gninnur karona

vodkadiet1 wrote:This is great work from Pink Ball. I also wonder how many times the favourite at the start of the semi finals has won the tournament? Maybe Pink Ball can put that paper out after Christmas?!!


For the last 10 World Championships using the relative seeding positions of the players at the SF stage:
One 5 x champion 3 x runners-up
Two 1 x champion 1 x runners-up
Three 3 x champion 5 x runners-up
Four 1 x champion 1 x runners-up

Re: The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible

Postby vodkadiet1

gninnur karona wrote:
vodkadiet1 wrote:This is great work from Pink Ball. I also wonder how many times the favourite at the start of the semi finals has won the tournament? Maybe Pink Ball can put that paper out after Christmas?!!


For the last 10 World Championships using the relative seeding positions of the players at the SF stage:
One 5 x champion 3 x runners-up
Two 1 x champion 1 x runners-up
Three 3 x champion 5 x runners-up
Four 1 x champion 1 x runners-up


Good work. But the favourite isn't always the highest seed. It may be hard looking for retrospective betting forecasts.

Re: The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible

Postby KrazeeEyezKilla

Most years there's a couple of relative outsiders in the semi finals. You pretty much never see the top 4 players all reach the one table stage. What's interesting is that O'Sullivan lost five of his seven semis from 96-06 but hasn't lost since. He's only got to the one table five times in the last 15 years but has a 9-1 record with his only defeat being to Selby. Selby himself has in his last five appearances at the one table stage since 2014 a 8-1 record with his only loss against O'Sullivan. Trump's win in 2019 is his only one table appearance in the last six years.

It shows how hard it is to get through the first three rounds and for the real top players it can be the hardest part of winning the World Championship. Neil Robertson has only made it that far once since 2010. When John Higgins was at his Crucible peak his three titles were surrounded by second round losses.

Re: The Neil Robertson Trophy (first 10 days at the Crucible

Postby SnookerArcher

Interesting. Further about path of least resistance is deceptive for success I'm sure many wonder if Ronnie having sessions to spare for 2014 in the QF & SF maybe harmed his final, surface level you'd think it's a massive advantage & he must be in good form but maybe he was too relaxed for day 1 of the finals due to it, had he been more in the trenches he may have been more ruthless and came out much better than 10-7, Selby still would have made session 3 hell though but maybe it would have made the difference, not letting Selby take the lead going into the final session, where Ronnie tends to play best in the evening being closer to the finish line he could've got there in a quick burst & he didn't have the matchplay grit then vs now to play catchup vs the likes of Selby who likes to entangle people.