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Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Granite

Despite being touted as someone to take over Ronnie, the only 2 records I see him beating Ronnie's is centuries (just because there's more events, not because he's a better breakbuilder) and ranking events but when it comes to the big, meaningful records like the Worlds and Triple Crown events...he's not threatening in the slightest is he?

In Snooker you always had some form of a "heir", from Davis to Hendry to Ronnie that always used to win the Big 3 events and they followed a pattern targeting and winning the UK, Masters and Worlds...but Judd isn't anywhere close despite being 32.

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Granite

Even compare Trump to Selby, Trump has 2 more ranking events but Selby's 20 ranking events has far more substance with 4 Worlds and an extra UK

plus 2 more Masters

4 > 1 at Worlds and 9 > 3 at overall Triple Crown events

I know which career is greater and which 99.9% of the players and fans would choose even though Judd's going to win more ranking events than Selby.

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Juddernaut88

Judd isn't a threat to Ronnie's records of course barring ranking events possibly but Selby isn't a threat to breaking any of Ronnie's records either. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the world championship Selby won this year is his last. I also would not at all be surprised if Judd does end up breaking Selbys triple crown records.
Yes Judd has been disappointing in triple crown events in the past few years but there is no reason why he can't turn it around. He is still 6 or 7 years younger then Selby.

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Granite

Juddernaut88 wrote:Judd isn't a threat to Ronnie's records of course barring ranking events possibly but Selby isn't a threat to breaking any of Ronnie's records either. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the world championship Selby won this year is his last. I also would not at all be surprised if Judd does end up breaking Selbys triple crown records.
Yes Judd has been disappointing in triple crown events in the past few years but there is no reason why he can't turn it around. He is still 6 or 7 years younger then Selby.


Judd's gonna be 33 next year, when Selby was 33 he was a 3x Worlds, 2x UK and 3x Masters champion. Selby's more closer to Ronnie's world titles than Judd is though and the more safer player to win a World than Judd.

Judd has a chance to beat Selby's but he's not really a heir to Selby is he?

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Prop

Granite wrote:Despite being touted as someone to take over Ronnie, the only 2 records I see him beating Ronnie's is centuries (just because there's more events, not because he's a better breakbuilder) and ranking events but when it comes to the big, meaningful records like the Worlds and Triple Crown events...he's not threatening in the slightest is he?

In Snooker you always had some form of a "heir", from Davis to Hendry to Ronnie that always used to win the Big 3 events and they followed a pattern targeting and winning the UK, Masters and Worlds...but Judd isn't anywhere close despite being 32.


Actually, Judd does score more centuries per frame than Ronnie.

Ronnie: One century every 10.75 frames played.
Judd: One century every 10.29 frames played.

I’m much more a Ronnie fan than I am a Trump fan, but fair’s fair. Centuries per frame takes the ‘more tournaments these days’ argument right out of the equation.

Judd has the highest century strike rate the game has ever seen.

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby mick745

I think Judd is suffering from level of expectation and self induced pressure.

He has probably had more expectation on his shoulders since turning pro than most other players.

He knows the level he can reach (as shown in the world final) and not suprisingly he is struggling to reach those heights consistently.

He also knows his triple crown record aint yet good enough and desperately wants to improve that. Maybe he's trying too hard?

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Granite

Prop wrote:
Granite wrote:Despite being touted as someone to take over Ronnie, the only 2 records I see him beating Ronnie's is centuries (just because there's more events, not because he's a better breakbuilder) and ranking events but when it comes to the big, meaningful records like the Worlds and Triple Crown events...he's not threatening in the slightest is he?

In Snooker you always had some form of a "heir", from Davis to Hendry to Ronnie that always used to win the Big 3 events and they followed a pattern targeting and winning the UK, Masters and Worlds...but Judd isn't anywhere close despite being 32.


Actually, Judd does score more centuries per frame than Ronnie.

Ronnie: One century every 10.75 frames played.
Judd: One century every 10.29 frames played.

I’m much more a Ronnie fan than I am a Trump fan, but fair’s fair. Centuries per frame takes the ‘more tournaments these days’ argument right out of the equation.

Judd has the highest century strike rate the game has ever seen.


Yeah but I read somewhere Ronnie has the highest 50+ breaks every year for the last 2 decades or something so break building is more than just number of centuries imo as that's just an extension because there's be much more 50+ more breaks than 100s

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Prop

Granite wrote:
Prop wrote:
Granite wrote:Despite being touted as someone to take over Ronnie, the only 2 records I see him beating Ronnie's is centuries (just because there's more events, not because he's a better breakbuilder) and ranking events but when it comes to the big, meaningful records like the Worlds and Triple Crown events...he's not threatening in the slightest is he?

In Snooker you always had some form of a "heir", from Davis to Hendry to Ronnie that always used to win the Big 3 events and they followed a pattern targeting and winning the UK, Masters and Worlds...but Judd isn't anywhere close despite being 32.


Actually, Judd does score more centuries per frame than Ronnie.

Ronnie: One century every 10.75 frames played.
Judd: One century every 10.29 frames played.

I’m much more a Ronnie fan than I am a Trump fan, but fair’s fair. Centuries per frame takes the ‘more tournaments these days’ argument right out of the equation.

Judd has the highest century strike rate the game has ever seen.


Yeah but I read somewhere Ronnie has the highest 50+ breaks every year for the last 2 decades or something so break building is more than just number of centuries imo as that's just an extension because there's be much more 50+ more breaks than 100s


And 50 breaks were never part of the discussion. So really that’s irrelevant. I’ll quote you here:

“the only 2 records I see him beating Ronnie's is centuries (just because there's more events, not because he's a better breakbuilder)”

You weren’t talking about 50s here. You were specifically talking about Judd breaking the century record. Nobody was talking about 50s. And Judd doesn’t score lots of centuries just because “there’s more events”. Facts speak for themselves. The stats don’t lie. Let’s not derail this into a discussion about 50s when it was only ever about the century record, yeah?

Like I said before, fair’s fair. I know Judd isn’t as popular as he’d like to be, and he’s attracted criticism for most of his career. But you can’t argue with facts. I’m a big Ronnie fan. But I can also hold my hands up and appreciate the magic other players bring to the sport. Try it. You might like it :-)

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Prop

Iranu wrote:Let’s see what Judd’s century rate is in his mid-40s. I assume Ronnie’s has gone down a bit in the last few years.


A valid point.

I wonder what Ronnie’s strike rate was at the same point in his career as Judd is now :chin:

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Prop

Btw Granite, semantics aside, I do kinda get your point.

In terms of a player being described as a ‘great breakbuilder’ (and leaving stats out of it) I think most of us can agree that Ronnie is the more artistic of the two. His positional play is far superior, he unlocks frames with his brain rather than all out power.

Maybe looking at both centuries and 50+ breaks in terms of strike rate is a better way of applying facts and figures to the ‘best breakbuilder’ argument. But I hope you can see the point I was making.

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Johnny Bravo

Prop wrote:Actually, Judd does score more centuries per frame than Ronnie.

Ronnie: One century every 10.75 frames played.
Judd: One century every 10.29 frames played.

I’m much more a Ronnie fan than I am a Trump fan, but fair’s fair. Centuries per frame takes the ‘more tournaments these days’ argument right out of the equation.

Judd has the highest century strike rate the game has ever seen.

This is a good/valid point, but what you don't take into consideration is the fact that Ronnie is way older.
As you get old, your strike rate decreases.

So a more fair comparison would be to compare their century per frame ratio at the same age.
So we have 2 options:
- both aged 33, as Judd is now;
or
- both aged 45/46.

For me, the second one is more relevant, as is showcases one's ability to maintain a very high level for such a long time.


As for the title of this thread, Judd will certainly have:
- the most ranking titles when he retires, probably around 40 or 50.
- the most centuries, probably around 2000. That number is mind boggling to me, but that's very realistic if he plays for another 15 years.

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Prop

Johnny Bravo wrote:
Prop wrote:Actually, Judd does score more centuries per frame than Ronnie.

Ronnie: One century every 10.75 frames played.
Judd: One century every 10.29 frames played.

I’m much more a Ronnie fan than I am a Trump fan, but fair’s fair. Centuries per frame takes the ‘more tournaments these days’ argument right out of the equation.

Judd has the highest century strike rate the game has ever seen.

This is a good/valid point, but what you don't take into consideration is the fact that Ronnie is way older.
As you get old, your strike rate decreases.

So a more fair comparison would be to compare their century per frame ratio at the same age.
So we have 2 options:
- both aged 33, as Judd is now;
or
- both aged 45/46.

For me, the second one is more relevant, as is showcases one's ability to maintain a very high level for such a long time.


As for the title of this thread, Judd will certainly have:
- the most ranking titles when he retires, probably around 40 or 50.
- the most centuries, probably around 2000. That number is mind boggling to me, but that's very realistic if he plays for another 15 years.


Yes, we did discuss that. See my earlier post in reply to Iranu.

I’m not sure how straightforward it would be to find those stats from that particular point in Ronnie’s career. But I’d be interested to find out.

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby rekoons

Prop wrote:Yes, we did discuss that. See my earlier post in reply to Iranu.

I’m not sure how straightforward it would be to find those stats from that particular point in Ronnie’s career. But I’d be interested to find out.


I can think of a way to do this, just gonna need some time... :chin:

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Prop

rekoons wrote:
Prop wrote:Yes, we did discuss that. See my earlier post in reply to Iranu.

I’m not sure how straightforward it would be to find those stats from that particular point in Ronnie’s career. But I’d be interested to find out.


I can think of a way to do this, just gonna need some time... :chin:


I think it’s essentially his stats up to this point in the 2008/09 season. Could be wrong.

I’ve had a play around on Cuetracker but didn’t really get anywhere with it.

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby rekoons

Sooo... here are the results (easier then I thought):

Ronnie made 2668 50+ breaks out of 6676 frames played between 1990 and 2009 resulting in 39.96% 50+ break strike rate

Judd made 3237 50+ breaks out of 8052 frames played between 2000 and now, resulting in 40.20 % 50+ break strike rate

notes:

The figures for Ronnie are up untill he was 34 years old, Judd is now 32 I think?

Judd has played 20,6% more frames than Ronnie for about the same age

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby rekoons

So the 50+'s are too tight too tell a difference, maybe the century % up untill about the same age then?

Ronnie: 540/6676 = 8.09 % or framerate of 12.36

Judd: 806/8052 = 10.01 % or framerate of 9.99
Last edited by rekoons on 01 Dec 2021, edited 1 time in total.

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby chengdufan

This doesn't take everything into consideration though...

For example, a lot more of Ronnie's frames have been played against elite level players.
If you play 38 frames against numpties and win 28 of them to win the Gibraltar Open, you've won 73% of your frames, giving you many more century opportunities than if you win 71 and lose 55 against top class opposition to win the World Championship (56% of your frames).

To simplify things and for a fairer comparison, you could look at all of their Crucible rounds 1+2 frames up to a certain age and compare 100+ and 50+ rates.

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby rekoons

chengdufan wrote:This doesn't take everything into consideration though...

For example, a lot more of Ronnie's frames have been played against elite level players.
If you play 38 frames against numpties and win 28 of them to win the Gibraltar Open, you've won 73% of your frames, giving you many more century opportunities than if you win 71 and lose 55 against top class opposition to win the World Championship (56% of your frames).

To simplify things and for a fairer comparison, you could look at all of their Crucible rounds 1+2 frames up to a certain age and compare 100+ and 50+ rates.


I'll let you figure that out one though <laugh>

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby chengdufan

Thinking about it, the fairest comparison could be to look at their scoring rates against top 10 players in the rankings revisit :chin:

The trick will be not making this more complicated than it needs to be, which I fear I may already be doing!

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Prop

chengdufan wrote:Thinking about it, the fairest comparison could be to look at their scoring rates against top 10 players in the rankings revisit :chin:

The trick will be not making this more complicated than it needs to be, which I fear I may already be doing!


Chengdufan accepts the challenge. You heard it here <laugh>

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby rekoons

chengdufan wrote:Thinking about it, the fairest comparison could be to look at their scoring rates against top 10 players in the rankings revisit :chin:

The trick will be not making this more complicated than it needs to be, which I fear I may already be doing!


Yes, I think to avoid making errors in trying to choose the 'right' criteria, it is actually best to use all off the available data. Like we just did... over time, when Judd reaches 45 the comparison will become more and more accurate.

You could just as well argue it's not necesarily easier to make 50 or 70 + breaks against weaker opponents because you could loose focus which you are maybe less prone to when playing the top players... :shrug:

Re: Judd's really not a threat to Ronnie's records is he?

Postby Sickpotter

Prop wrote:
Granite wrote:Despite being touted as someone to take over Ronnie, the only 2 records I see him beating Ronnie's is centuries (just because there's more events, not because he's a better breakbuilder) and ranking events but when it comes to the big, meaningful records like the Worlds and Triple Crown events...he's not threatening in the slightest is he?

In Snooker you always had some form of a "heir", from Davis to Hendry to Ronnie that always used to win the Big 3 events and they followed a pattern targeting and winning the UK, Masters and Worlds...but Judd isn't anywhere close despite being 32.


Actually, Judd does score more centuries per frame than Ronnie.

Ronnie: One century every 10.75 frames played.
Judd: One century every 10.29 frames played.

I’m much more a Ronnie fan than I am a Trump fan, but fair’s fair. Centuries per frame takes the ‘more tournaments these days’ argument right out of the equation.

Judd has the highest century strike rate the game has ever seen.


I think comparing a century strike rate is misleading......every player sees a drop off in that stat towards the end of their career and the longer your career continues the lower your century rate becomes.

I'd like to see a breakdown on century strike rate for every 1000 frames played.....1000 frames while they're at their respective peaks would be a better comparison IMO.