Race to the Crucible 2022

Mark Selby, Ronnie O'Sullivan, Judd Trump, Neil Robertson, Kyren Wilson, Shaun Murphy and John Higgins surely have enough ranking points already. Prize money this season may not be completely known until next Spring rendering difficult attempts to estimate the number of points required for direct qualification; perhaps somewhere between £225K and £250K? Barry Hawkins, Stuart Bingham (return of), Anthony McGill, Jack Lisowski and Mark Williams are well-positioned to surpass the higher of those two marks.

Who will take the remaining four places? How many of last season's seeds will have to navigate the qualification event?

At this stage I forecast Yan Bingtao and Zhou Yuelong (for the first time) consolidate their in situ placings making the Crucible 16, but they're not what I would call banker selections. I'm even less confident in forecasting the final two places.

gninnur karona wrote:...
At this stage I forecast Yan Bingtao and Zhou Yuelong (for the first time) consolidate their in situ placings making the Crucible 16, but they're not what I would call banker selections. I'm even less confident in forecasting the final two places.

Well yes, it is a bit early for this! We don't even know the schedule or prizemoney!


The best guide for top-16 is based on last year's 1-year list, plus the World Championship points from 2020 (which Zhou missed). Most likely Gilbert, Ding, Yan, Allen and Maguire will drop out of the top-16 in the next few months, and need a deep run somewhere to have any chance. Conversely Gould, Day and Jordan Brown are in a strong position, mainly on the strength of a single result last season. It seems like it's almost enough to have one big payout per season to maintain a top-16 place, so almost anyone could get in.

and with Ding not entering British Open (and with NI open qualies the week after must be chance he'll miss that)...clearly relying on a big UK performance

Because he's one of the top 16 ranking prize money earners over the time period.

Of course one over-rewarded ShootOut title helps, but without an unlikely follow-up triumph his form would have to significantly improve this season to keep the provisional top 16 place that he would have ceded to Jordan Brown in April if he'd lost the deciding frame against Louis Heathcote.

SnookerFan wrote:

gninnur karona wrote:Apologies. Amiss of me not to have included this link in my original post.

I forget.

Why is Ryan Day there?

Because this is clearly going to be Ryan's year

Two events completed.

Mark Williams through to the Crucible after winning the British Open. Zhang Jiankang's missed black off the spot created an opportunity, Mark Williams exploited it. Despite the chasing pack bunching up (Allister Carter, David Gilbert, Mark Allen and Ricky Walden all making ground up on the four most vulnerable encumbents) no change yet to any of the 16 names pencilled into the seeding spots. A question of time perhaps?

Meanwhile a little early to be talking about Tour Survival but noteworthy that any of Gary Wilson, Jimmy Robertson, Elliot Slessor would have been outside the provisional top 64 if they'd fallen at the British Open first fence. Worries largely extinguished. Gary Wilson's run to the final leaves him closer to an end-season top 16 place than at risk of dropping off the tour.

For the record the Northern Ireland Open resulted in the first changes in the players comprising the provisional 16.

Friday 15th October began shortly after midnight with David Gilbert ousting Zhou Yuelong. During the afternoon he in turn was replaced first by Mark Allen then, on checkback, by Ricky Walden. Mark Allen regained his place by winning Saturday's semi-final and having gone on to win a thrilling final on Sunday has established a solid platform from which he is odds on to confirm a place at the Crucible.

German Masters qualifying not the defining event in the race to the Crucible but nevertheless. For the second consecutive Friday Ricky Walden forced his way into the Crucible provisional top 16 this time displacing Ryan Day. And bis repetita although this week Ricky Walden could only contemplate events from afar. Ryan Day one day later somewhat fortuitously retrieving his place which he is now guaranteed to retain for the rest of October.

SnookerFan wrote:Ding has entered the English Open, hasn't he?

Yep he has.

SnookerFan wrote:Ding has entered the English Open, hasn't he?

I believe he has, yes.

A thoroughly enjoyable UK Championship culminating in a wonderful final weekend. Zhao Xintong and Luca Brecel producing exhilarating snooker. Looking forward to seeing both in the Tour Championship and at the Crucible. Speaking of which....................

No less than seven changes to the provisional composition of the 16 Crucible seeds during the UK Championship. When the dust had settled................. Barry Hawkins and Zhao Xintong, assuming a £250000 pass mark, had sealed their places at the Crucible, Luca Brecel found himself in the 16 for the first time this season, Ryan Day and Martin Gould dropped out.

Anthony McGill (Scottish Open QF win) and Stuart Bingham (World Grand Prix completed round 1 match following negative COVID test) have in turn exceeded 250000 ranking points to 'clinch' their places at the Crucible.

Of course that qualification mark is only an estimate. Could it be lower? Jack Lisowski and Luca Brecel are closing in on 250K while for Mark Allen, provided he successfully protects a 41500 cushion, participation in the Tour Championship should see him over the line. That would leave just one spot possible below 250K. Could it be higher? Possibly. I guess it depends largely on how many of the business end slots of the remaining ranking tournaments are taken by players outside the provisional top 16 list.

There are a number of well known players dangerously near or below the relegation line, including Thepchaiya Un-Nooh, Matthew Stevens, Michael Holt, Nigel Bond, Ken Doherty and Rory McLeod.

Dominic Dale, Elliot Slessor, Andrew Higginson and Kurt Maflin have to be very careful.

All have to do well in the second half of the season.

Zhao vs Ronnie, Ronnie takes it 18-16.

mick745 wrote:There are a number of well known players dangerously near or below the relegation line, including Thepchaiya Un-Nooh, Matthew Stevens, Michael Holt, Nigel Bond, Ken Doherty and Rory McLeod.

Dominic Dale, Elliot Slessor, Andrew Higginson and Kurt Maflin have to be very careful.

All have to do well in the second half of the season.

For some of them, there's not much season left. It will nodoubt come down to their World Championship. Even a good run in Gibraltar won't make much difference. We also don't know exactly what will happen with the Turkish Masters, if it will run.

gninnur karona wrote:while for Mark Allen, provided he successfully protects a 41500 cushion, participation in the Tour Championship should see him over the line.

Would he get the spot though, or should it go to his creditors?

Luca Brecel successfully tested COVID negative which enabled him to play his match at the Players against Jimmy Robertson. A 6-1 defeat not the result that Luca Brecel had hoped for but nevertheless enough to carry him past 250000 ranking points.

Four further ranking events will be completed ahead of the Tour Championship. Of those currently outside the provisional Crucible 16 (whose composition is unchanged since 4th December) no player, apart from Ricky Walden, has a route to force himself into the Crucible places before the Tour Championship which doesn't include reaching at least one upcoming ranking final. Ricky Walden is the only player outside the provisional Crucible 16 who is currently in a qualification place for that Tour Championship - by the narrowest of margins from Yan Bingtao on countback.

Incidentally if rankings were based on one year ranking event results rather than two years there would be just two changes to the composition of the Crucible provisional 16. David Gilbert and Ricky Walden would be inside the 16 in place of Jack Lisowski and Anthony McGill. Noteworthy that using one year results only, Judd Trump would be on track to be seeded 16th at Sheffield.

lhpirnie wrote:

mick745 wrote:There are a number of well known players dangerously near or below the relegation line, including Thepchaiya Un-Nooh, Matthew Stevens, Michael Holt, Nigel Bond, Ken Doherty and Rory McLeod.

Dominic Dale, Elliot Slessor, Andrew Higginson and Kurt Maflin have to be very careful.

All have to do well in the second half of the season.

For some of them, there's not much season left. It will nodoubt come down to their World Championship. Even a good run in Gibraltar won't make much difference. We also don't know exactly what will happen with the Turkish Masters, if it will run.

I think The Turkish Masters will run, even if travel becomes a problem again, MK could stage it.

I think we will lose some old time greats this year as I can't see all of them bothering with Q School like Dale, Bond and Stevens. Ken will get a Jimmy card. He is the only one with one of those cards that actually uses it effectively.

The_Abbott wrote:

lhpirnie wrote:

mick745 wrote:There are a number of well known players dangerously near or below the relegation line, including Thepchaiya Un-Nooh, Matthew Stevens, Michael Holt, Nigel Bond, Ken Doherty and Rory McLeod.

Dominic Dale, Elliot Slessor, Andrew Higginson and Kurt Maflin have to be very careful.

All have to do well in the second half of the season.

For some of them, there's not much season left. It will nodoubt come down to their World Championship. Even a good run in Gibraltar won't make much difference. We also don't know exactly what will happen with the Turkish Masters, if it will run.

I think The Turkish Masters will run, even if travel becomes a problem again, MK could stage it.

I think we will lose some old time greats this year as I can't see all of them bothering with Q School like Dale, Bond and Stevens. Ken will get a Jimmy card. He is the only one with one of those cards that actually uses it effectively.

I'm not sure about having the Turkish Masters in MK, isn't it sponsored by the hotel which is acting as the venue? I doubt they'll fork out the cash if the hotel isn't on show. I'd be surprised if travel becomes that much of a problem though, unless it all kicks off in Ukraine I guess.

SnookerFan wrote:Milton Keynes, you say...

yeah It's where Scotland, Wales and Germany are I think.

Update after the Welsh Open where Jack Lisowski becomes the 14th player to cross the 250000 points line. Elsewhere the stability of the provisional 16 extends beyond the three month mark as Kyren Wilson goes out to the eventual winner for the 3rd consecutive ranking tournament. In further fact is stranger than fiction Fan Zhengyi and Joe Perry additionally both knock out Dave Gilbert on their way to glory.

Three more events to go before the seedings are confirmed. Yan Bingtao, Ricky Walden and Hossein Vafaei for one place? They're respectively currently 16, 17 and 18 in the Crucible race but 10, 8 and 9 on the list to qualify for the Tour Championship, although there Judd Trump is much closer after reaching the Welsh Open final.

Yan Bingtao didn't enter Gibraltar Open and thus he's out of the Tour Championship too. It will be very difficult to keep the 16th place.

Vallomas wrote:Yan Bingtao didn't enter Gibraltar Open and thus he's out of the Tour Championship too. It will be very difficult to keep the 16th place.

I wonder why Yan Bingtao isn't playing in the Gibraltar Open with his top 16 position under threat.

Well, I just checcked the provisional ranking list. It's not so easy for Walden (207,000) or Vafaei (182,000) to overtake Yan, who has 233,000 pounds. Their only realistic chance will come if any of them wins the Gibraltar Open.