A 20/21 season analysis so far

So let's have a look at the current trends of performance after the first five ranking events of the season, who's looking like they're in a positional bind and who's performing to equivalent rank.

The top 16 just taking into account the 20/21 season (current actual rankings in brackets):

(1) 1. Judd Trump 264500
(2) 2. Neil Robertson 264000
(4) 3. Mark Selby 135500
(5) 4. Kyren Wilson 85500
(20) 5. Zhou Yuelong 70000
(6) 6. John Higgins 59500
(33) 7. Martin Gould 48500
(32) 8. Lu Ning 48000
(3) 9. Ronnie O'Sullivan 43500
(18) 10. Joe Perry 42500
(23) 11. Barry Hawkins 41500
(60) 12. David Grace 41000
(10) 13. Ding Junhui 39000
(7) 14. Shaun Murphy 37000
(17) 15. Anthony McGill 36500
(15) 16. Jack Lisowski 35500

other notable places:

(11) 17. Yan Bingtao 32500
(13) 18. Stuart Bingham 32000
(8) 29. Steven Maguire 25000
(9) 31. Mark Allen 24500
(16) 37. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh 23000
(14) 53. Mark Williams 18000
(12) 63. David Gilbert 14500


So, yes, Zhou Yuelong is definitely the player to watch right now and the only anomaly in the top 6. Gould, Ning and Grace are the big surprises who one could argue are just flukes, but it'll be worth keeping a side-eye on them for a few tournaments. Long-term journeymen++ Perry and Hawkins are currently much better than their long-term rankings would suggest.

Ronnie hasn't had a great year so far, but he's never been one for consistency, so no panic there yet. Same for Murphy. They're both just one half decent run away from normality. Fans of these might be starting to worry though.

Ding, McGill and Lisowski are the other members of the current top 16 playing to form so far this year.

Bingtao and Bingham have so far drifted into journeyman territory, but not much to worry about, they're both thereabouts to their current ranking expectations.

Very worrying times for the rest though. Maguire, Allen and Thepchaiya are all looking like players who are in ever more desperate need of that one good run to steady the ship. Williams and Gilbert are both having a total collapse. Allen probably has the least to worry about due to his CoC win, but the others will be starting to feel the pressure more and more as the season progresses. For the newer players looking at their draws, these lot are looking like good draws.

tl;dr

20/21 analysis

1. Judd and Robertson
2. rest

After 2 more events and at the turn of the Christmas break, the current top 16 for this season so far looks like this:

1. Judd Trump 374,500 (-)
2. Neil Robertson 246,000 (-)
3. Mark Selby 225,500 (-)
4. Kyren Wilson 108,000 (-)
5. Ronnie O'Sullivan 93,500 (+4)
6. Jack Lisowski 78,500 (+10)
7. Zhou Yuelong 74,000 (-2)
8. John Higgins 70,000 (-2)
9. Martin Gould 61,000 (-2)
10. Lu Ning 59,500 (-2)
11. Ding Junhui 56,500 (+2)
11. Barry Hawkins 56,500 (-)
13. Jamie Jones 48,000 (new)
14. Stuart Bingham 47,000 (+4)
15. Zhao Xintong 46,500 (new)
16. Anthony McGill 44,000 (-1)

With Joe Perry, David Grace and Shaun Murphy dropping out the top 16 so far this season.

Where are the rest of the current top 16?

18. Shaun Murphy (-4)
20. Yan Bingtao (-3)
27. Mark Allen (+4)
37. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh (-)
38. Mark Williams (+15)
39. Stephen Maguire (-10)
70. David Gilbert (-7)

So not much in the way of signs of improvement for these guys.

Still a long way to go this year though.

doesn't trump usually play the championship league to get some match practice for the masters?

Following the Welsh Open we're now about 3/4 of the way through the season, so, how are things looking now if we just take into account what's happened so far this season?

No.1 - Judd Trump - 454,500 (-)
2. - Mark Selby - 255,500 (+1)
3. Neil Robertson - 246,000 (-1)
4. Ronnie O'Sullivan - 123,500 (+1)
5. Jack Lisowski - 122,000 (+1)
6. Kyren Wilson - 117,000 (-2)
7. Jordan Brown - 100,000 (new)
8. Zhou Yuelong - 87,500 (-1)
9. Barry Hawkins - 80,500 (+2)
10. John Higgins - 74,500 (-2)
11. Ryan Day - 73,000 (new)
12. Martin Gould - 66,000 (-3)
13. Ding Junhui - 65,500 (-2)
14. Lu Ning - 63,500 (-4)
15. Stuart Bingham - 58,000 (-1)
16. Shaun Murphy - 56,500 (+2)

Other notable placings:

18. Mark Williams - 53,500 (+20)
24. Yan Bingtao - 47,500 (-4)
25. Stephen Maguire - 45,000 (+14)
27. Mark Allen - 41,500 - (-)
58. David Gilbert - 22,500 (+12)

Shaun Murphy squeaks back into the top 16 while Anthony McGill drifts out. Jordan Brown and Ryan Day are new entries while previous new entries Xiao Xintong and Jamie Jones exit with equal speed.

Yan Bingtao continues his slow decline despite winning a major non-ranker while Mark Williams and Stephen Maguire managed to salvage a healthy incline. Mark Allen somehow manages to be a non-mover even at 27th and Gilbert's impressive climb is almost akin to a non-mover, again despite a good showing in a non-ranker.

We've seen a lot of Higgins this year, but he's somehow managed to continue to decline this year, a 4 rank drop since the start of the season is quite a big deal for someone like him. As is Ding's continued faltering to the point of being in the danger zone alongside Bingham.

Lisowski has been playing so well that his second final barely dented his impressive climb up the ranks as he's now a top 5 competitor and will need more than the odd final to climb further. He's in the Kyren Zone. Meanwhile, Barry Hawkins has quietly crept into the top 10 with lots and lots of nearly there runs.

I can't see anyone challenging Judd for tournament favourite for the WC at this point, his lead is now equivalent to a lapping in athletics. His No.1 spot could probably endure not winning the title anyway by this point.

Great analysis LDS. Thank you.