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Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby lhpirnie

taipafan wrote:
lhpirnie wrote:Next, a global ranking system. There are currently 7500 players on the list:



How about a forecast system, rating each player?
I have a model to forecast horse racing, using multiple regression.

Yes, each player has different stats, for example 'reliability'.

Sometime I plan to have a chat-bot, something where you could enter 'CAN DING QUALIFY MASTERS' and it would give you scenarios, probablities, etc.

But actually, I'm not a gambler - I never placed a bet on any snooker match in my life, so when it comes to assessing odds I don't have any expertise at all.

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby taipafan

Odds is the same as probablities.
Usually profit is a motivation to improve the model.
If your model is good enough, investers will buy your information, or share you bonus on the bets.

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby lhpirnie

I've just updated the ranking list. The latest results are the World Grand Prix, and the Women's Belgian Open.

Some will be disappointed that Judd Trump has just pipped Ronnie O'Sullivan at the top, but it really is very close. If Mark Allen had won last night by 10-8 or better, Ronnie would still have been top.

http://www.snookerlewis.com/elo_ratings

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby KrazeeEyezKilla

Great site, You've mentioned a global ranking list before and I can now see what it would look like. I met a snooker player recently and he's there in the list.

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby lhpirnie

KrazeeEyezKilla wrote:Great site, You've mentioned a global ranking list before and I can now see what it would look like. I met a snooker player recently and he's there in the list.

I would like more. If anyone sends me results of verifiable amateur or Pro-Am tournaments, I'd be happy to include them. I really believe a global community of snooker players would encourage participation. Currently I have 23000 players in the database, 7500 active (played a match since 2019). It could be 10 times that many.

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby gninnur karona

lhpirnie wrote:The purpose of the website is to demonstrate some ideas for snooker. I've implemented a number of demos which hopefully illustrate what I have in mind. Yes, they are all pretty radical, but most of them are workable - in fact easy to implement.

The main website is:
http://www.snookerlewis.com

You can get in touch by e-mail, or of course post on this forum! I hope there will at least be some debate.


To the decision-makers I would like to nominate snookerlewis.com to be added to the Friends of Snooker Island links pages. There's a lot of material on the site that should inspire the snooker connoisseur, with the promise of more.

You write "Everything presented here could be adopted in time for the 2023-24 season". Undoubtedly true but should they be? And will they be?

Considering for example current happenings in golf coupled with snooker's increasing insularity it isn't fanciful to suggest that WST are probably most concerned with fending off potential challenges to their position running the professional game. In parallel the BBC and ITV give the impression that they would prefer snooker to contract the sport, further reducing events outside the United Kingdom and culling professionals outside the top 32. I find it sad that yesterday the BBC website entitled their main snooker story "Hendry fined for 'Masked Singer' absences" whilst imposing radio silence on the cancellation of the Turkish Masters.

That's the background against which you are trying to sell your ideas to WST and WPBSA.

Whilst I agree that expansion is the desired way forward, a reformed ranking system is not a panacea to remedy the professional snooker tour's structural weaknesses. A greater range of tournaments is certainly viable without revolutionary change as perfectly illustrated by the 2013-14 and 2014-15 calendars - the WST decision to end PTC tournaments, that in Europe were laying down roots for the sport, and that in China were serving as promotional aperitif before higher-profile events, was a self-inflicted error. Why not reverse it?

In essence, though, I am not convinced by a move to an Elo system. Looking at other sports I would favour a future ranking system similar to that used by tennis rather than chess. Indeed, replicating the structure of the tennis events calendar would be a huge step forward for snooker. It works for tennis why not for snooker?

For ball replacement you've demonstrated the viability and proved that costs would not be insurmountable so it comes down to the recurring questions about technology in sport. Where do you set the limit for ball replacement? Whether football, cricket or tennis, technology is only used at top-level. Where do you wish the line to be drawn in snooker? Will this be just for the TV table(s)? Every table in every ranking event? Or somewhere inbetween? Yes, though, if there's a will this could be in place for 2023-24.

Lastly the QSchool Swiss elimination system. I agree using a Swiss system is superior, in theory increasing the probability of the best players succeeding. However I don't believe that all Swiss system set ups in practice work out that way. My suspicion is that placing 166 players (I think that was ultimately the number that played QSchool UK summer 2022) into a single unique pool isn't the optimum solution. How about splitting the participants into smaller pre-determined sections (eg 4x32 and 1x38 with ex-pros spread equitably between the sections) for the first five rounds, then, half the players eliminated, holding a knock-out round for the survivors with the worst records (all of whom will be among those who have already lost twice) to reduce into a final Swiss pool of 64 (carrying-over all results except that of the unique knock-out round)? And yes it could and should be implemented for the next QSchool event. How, though, to convince WST/WPBSA?

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby lhpirnie

BringBackTonyDrago wrote:The pictures uploaded need to be a bigger size . Even when zoomed in it’s blurry. Great though I do stuff like this for football league

You mean the picture of Selby-Yan with Rob Spencer? Yes, I can use a better picture. I wanted a particular scenario to tie it in to the narrative, but it didn't really work out. That picture was capped from the video of the match, so it obviously not the best quality. I need to improve the video as well, but was quite nervewracking to do it in one take with Zoom. Thanks for the feedback!

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby lhpirnie

gninnur karona wrote:...

You write "Everything presented here could be adopted in time for the 2023-24 season". Undoubtedly true but should they be? And will they be?

Considering for example current happenings in golf coupled with snooker's increasing insularity it isn't fanciful to suggest that WST are probably most concerned with fending off potential challenges to their position running the professional game. In parallel the BBC and ITV give the impression that they would prefer snooker to contract the sport, further reducing events outside the United Kingdom and culling professionals outside the top 32. I find it sad that yesterday the BBC website entitled their main snooker story "Hendry fined for 'Masked Singer' absences" whilst imposing radio silence on the cancellation of the Turkish Masters.

That's the background against which you are trying to sell your ideas to WST and WPBSA.

Whilst I agree that expansion is the desired way forward, a reformed ranking system is not a panacea to remedy the professional snooker tour's structural weaknesses. A greater range of tournaments is certainly viable without revolutionary change as perfectly illustrated by the 2013-14 and 2014-15 calendars - the WST decision to end PTC tournaments, that in Europe were laying down roots for the sport, and that in China were serving as promotional aperitif before higher-profile events, was a self-inflicted error. Why not reverse it?

In essence, though, I am not convinced by a move to an Elo system. Looking at other sports I would favour a future ranking system similar to that used by tennis rather than chess. Indeed, replicating the structure of the tennis events calendar would be a huge step forward for snooker. It works for tennis why not for snooker?

For ball replacement you've demonstrated the viability and proved that costs would not be insurmountable so it comes down to the recurring questions about technology in sport. Where do you set the limit for ball replacement? Whether football, cricket or tennis, technology is only used at top-level. Where do you wish the line to be drawn in snooker? Will this be just for the TV table(s)? Every table in every ranking event? Or somewhere inbetween? Yes, though, if there's a will this could be in place for 2023-24.

Lastly the QSchool Swiss elimination system. I agree using a Swiss system is superior, in theory increasing the probability of the best players succeeding. However I don't believe that all Swiss system set ups in practice work out that way. My suspicion is that placing 166 players (I think that was ultimately the number that played QSchool UK summer 2022) into a single unique pool isn't the optimum solution. How about splitting the participants into smaller pre-determined sections (eg 4x32 and 1x38 with ex-pros spread equitably between the sections) for the first five rounds, then, half the players eliminated, holding a knock-out round for the survivors with the worst records (all of whom will be among those who have already lost twice) to reduce into a final Swiss pool of 64 (carrying-over all results except that of the unique knock-out round)? And yes it could and should be implemented for the next QSchool event. How, though, to convince WST/WPBSA?

Many thanks for your views. Firstly, I don't expect any of this to be implemented before next season! My intention was the get the discussion started, and demonstrate that it's not too difficult to implement new ideas. In fact, I would say that many of these things would work more smoothly than the currect situation. But I really believe not enough snooker fans are talking about the future - almost all are talking about the past, and this is very dangerous at times like these when snooker is at a crossroads.

The global ranking system is partly to allow professional events of different sizes (128-player, 32-player, 8-player, etc.) but also to provide a global community of players, with incentives for people to actually get out and play. Any system based on 'ranking points' can't scale up to that - it's hopeless. You can only have a closed shop of 128 players (or less), all having to spend 10 months of the year in the UK. We need to be global (geographically) and inclusive in today's world. The PCT system is not flexible enough to be viable financially. We could probably have a 16-player Turkish Masters, but evidently not a 128-player event. Sponsors and broadcasters aren't keen on backing 'non-ranking' tournaments.

With a reformed ranking system, that would in principle give WST more power. They would make the decision whether local amateur tournaments received 'ranking status', for example if a club refused women participants. If Ronnie O'Sullivan wanted to organise a 'tournament' comprising challenge matches with some big-name opponents, WST could embrace it rather than having to ban them all. There is a problem that WST only seem to be concerned with the closed professional game. All of the players that they depend on originally come from the amateur ranks...

For ball-replacement, it should be implemented for any professional match. Any match with a referee can have some technological assistance for that referee. It can be built into the device that the referees already use for scoring.

As for Q School, your idea might work - perhaps I will implement it as a demo simulation. But on the face of it, it sounds even more complicated than mine! My experience with knockout rounds is that they are far too stressful. Even a seeded draw might pit two top players against each other. The snooker is terrible, and it leads to the kind of game that won't be suitable when they actually qualify and play on tour. It's the wrong kind of test. Swiss tournaments have been incredibly successful in many other sports and games. Unfortunately they haven't been used in snooker, hence the doubts. Have faith!

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby Aislabie

This is absolutely beautiful. I can do little but credit you for your excellent work

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby lhpirnie

Rankings have been updated on http://www.snookerlewis.com following the Shoot-out, Guernsey Amateur Championship and a couple of EPSB events.

Following his win last night, Chris Wakelin moved up 7 places to 42nd on the list. The Shoot-out makes very little difference, as I only count each frame as half for Shoot-outs and 6-Reds.

I've also added a couple of new ideas and made some corrections. I'm always open to new things, especially suggestions for any tournament demos,

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby Aislabie

I've been having fun with your Elo match simulator, and it's really good. I used it to run a hypothetical English National Championship (64-player random draw) and it put out just the right number of upsets for it to feel like a real tournament. Ronnie O'Sullivan won it in the end, and Jamie O'Neill had the best underdog story, beating out Robert Milkins, Ashley Hugill and Alfie Burden to reach the quarter-finals.

There are two things I'd love to see added. Firstly, I'd love to be able to include non-standard players and Elo ratings in the input section; at the minute this happens:
Image

And secondly, I'd love to see the functionality of this bit included where it calculates players' new Elo ratings after the match:
Image

Those two would be really cool tools for creating a snooker RPG

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby lhpirnie

Aislabie wrote:I've been having fun with your Elo match simulator, and it's really good. I used it to run a hypothetical English National Championship (64-player random draw) and it put out just the right number of upsets for it to feel like a real tournament. Ronnie O'Sullivan won it in the end, and Jamie O'Neill had the best underdog story, beating out Robert Milkins, Ashley Hugill and Alfie Burden to reach the quarter-finals.

There are two things I'd love to see added. Firstly, I'd love to be able to include non-standard players and Elo ratings in the input section; at the minute this happens:
Image

And secondly, I'd love to see the functionality of this bit included where it calculates players' new Elo ratings after the match:
Image

Those two would be really cool tools for creating a snooker RPG

Thanks. Yes, playing through some demo tournament can be a bit addictive! I one Ruritanian Masters, Mark Selby beat Rudolf Rassendyll 5:4. I can imagine exactly how that match must have gone!

I can certainly implement what you asked for about the auto-complete text-boxes. Perhaps I can also add a fantasy tournament template. But these will have to wait until after I get back from Berlin.

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby HappyCamper

Out of interest have you can any sort of regression analysis to assess the predictive value of your Elo system? Would be interesting.

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby Holden Chinaski

HappyCamper wrote:Out of interest have you can any sort of regression analysis to assess the predictive value of your Elo system?

Come again?

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby HappyCamper

Holden Chinaski wrote:
HappyCamper wrote:Out of interest have you can any sort of regression analysis to assess the predictive value of your Elo system?

Come again?


basically compare the expected outcomes predicted by the ratings to actual match outcomes over a large enough data set using statistical analysis to see how much they diverge.

Re: New Ideas for Snooker

Postby lhpirnie

HappyCamper wrote:
Holden Chinaski wrote:
HappyCamper wrote:Out of interest have you can any sort of regression analysis to assess the predictive value of your Elo system?

Come again?


basically compare the expected outcomes predicted by the ratings to actual match outcomes over a large enough data set using statistical analysis to see how much they diverge.

Yes, I can look at that. I did some regressive analysis to set the swing constants. But what I won't do is any kind of gambling forecasting. I'll leave that to others...