Smurf makes 2 maxis in a row

I don't know if u guys saw this, but the Smurf made history a few days ago by making 2 147's in a row. It was in an exhibition match against Jimmy in Hungary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJbpiODJO0g&t=1217s

Did he play any nice tactical shots? No? Thought not.

Adrian Gunnell made 3 in 3 frames once

Those pockets are really tight....

But this is a bit like an American female tennis players on clay.. They are all about making that "miracle on clay" to happen.. Yes, the first few days always goes really well and they are almost all progressing, similar to the Chinese usual efforts. Only to almost completely losing it when some another day arises and they still should be executing and playing really well. That much talked "the miracle on clay" is just not happening. The only miracle there is happening is Caroline Wozniacki and she´s a Dane. But at least the Americans or the Chinese are not completely pathetic as some French players are. Some of them have it all, and some of them having none. The willingness to fight and to battle and to make most of their abilities.

Bit of a waiting and then hot hot.......

So wondering what will be Shaun Murphy like when the actions again are kicking off.

Even a one feeling alone is just a feeling. Even an anger is just a feeling. Or the joy. For example. Surely Shaun Murphy should try to get the coaching lessons from Stephen Hendry. And Ronnie O´Sullivan shoud try to had some also. I am sure the reigning WC Mark Williams has had some, as he found such a superior playing and they are such a close friends, M Williams and Hendry.

I remember posting a question about the possibility back to back maxis in real pro play a few years ago.

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5181

I believe that if Hearn gave (say) a £1,000,000 prize for back to back maxis then it would be achieved one day - at least if the pockets remain the same size. I think it's a far more exciting "one in a million chance" curiosity than winning all four home nation events. After all, in order for the four home nation "mega prize" of £1,000,000 to produce even an iota of real excitement someone has to win the first two, which is about a one in five chance in any given year.

TheSaviour wrote:But this is a bit like an American female tennis players on clay.. They are all about making that "miracle on clay" to happen.. Yes, the first few days always goes really well and they are almost all progressing, similar to the Chinese usual efforts. Only to almost completely losing it when some another day arises and they still should be executing and playing really well. That much talked "the miracle on clay" is just not happening. The only miracle there is happening is Caroline Wozniacki and she´s a Dane. But at least the Americans or the Chinese are not completely pathetic as some French players are. Some of them have it all, and some of them having none. The willingness to fight and to battle and to make most of their abilities.

Bit of a waiting and then hot hot.......

So wondering what will be Shaun Murphy like when the actions again are kicking off.

Even a one feeling alone is just a feeling. Even an anger is just a feeling. Or the joy. For example. Surely Shaun Murphy should try to get the coaching lessons from Stephen Hendry. And Ronnie O´Sullivan shoud try to had some also. I am sure the reigning WC Mark Williams has had some, as he found such a superior playing and they are such a close friends, M Williams and Hendry.

Well, as you say, I think Shaun Murphy will be less than able to replicate such achievements. BTW, although I love your contributions(!) I find them difficult to understand. Is it possible for you to develop the capacity for brevity? Failing that, some sort of appreciation for old wizened English (modern English is overrated!)

Andy Spark wrote:

TheSaviour wrote:But this is a bit like an American female tennis players on clay.. They are all about making that "miracle on clay" to happen.. Yes, the first few days always goes really well and they are almost all progressing, similar to the Chinese usual efforts. Only to almost completely losing it when some another day arises and they still should be executing and playing really well. That much talked "the miracle on clay" is just not happening. The only miracle there is happening is Caroline Wozniacki and she´s a Dane. But at least the Americans or the Chinese are not completely pathetic as some French players are. Some of them have it all, and some of them having none. The willingness to fight and to battle and to make most of their abilities.

Bit of a waiting and then hot hot.......

So wondering what will be Shaun Murphy like when the actions again are kicking off.

Even a one feeling alone is just a feeling. Even an anger is just a feeling. Or the joy. For example. Surely Shaun Murphy should try to get the coaching lessons from Stephen Hendry. And Ronnie O´Sullivan shoud try to had some also. I am sure the reigning WC Mark Williams has had some, as he found such a superior playing and they are such a close friends, M Williams and Hendry.

Well, as you say, I think Shaun Murphy will be less than able to replicate such achievements. BTW, although I love your contributions(!) I find them difficult to understand. Is it possible for you to develop the capacity for brevity? Failing that, some sort of appreciation for old wizened English (modern English is overrated!)

But................. Antoine Grrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzmmmmmmaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn....

Ringing any bells? I thought it should.

TheSaviour wrote:Thank you, Sir

Thanks for your feedback. I know I can be such, a difficult to understand, and certainly knowing I can be be rather off-topic also.

When making such a major bets you must know with who you are working with. At the M I am working with the likes of Thomas Müller and Toni Kroos. The best possible there just are. So a major money from my part were wisely invested l . Even when I won´t be winning, I certainly know I worked with the best possible people there just are. And that´s the key thing. And not the winning. To know with who are you working with,

But................. Antoine Grrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzmmmmmmaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn....

Ringing any bells? I thought it should.

(Yes, apologies to mods for being off-topic) I gather these are great pro footballers. Well, utmost respect for your working accomplishments Saviour!

Do we think anybody will ever make two 147s in a professional match?

They're getting a lot more common these days.

Liang nearly did it

Badsnookerplayer wrote:Liang nearly did it

It wasn’t back to back though

Dan-cat wrote:

Badsnookerplayer wrote:Liang nearly did it

It wasn’t back to back though

Oh yeah - I forgot that.

Mark Davis made two on consecutive days last season

The other day I made a 1 (red), a 4 (red and green) and then a 7 (final black) in back to back frames.

Does this count?

Dan-cat wrote:

Badsnookerplayer wrote:Liang nearly did it

It wasn’t back to back though

Still impressive.

Well it would've been if he'd have done it.

I would like to apologize if finding that me not giving enough credit towards this. Or towards Judd Trump´s usual supreme centuries. Or not give enough credit to D Thiem. That would be rather strange giving that it was me who actually found him.. Just can be a bit greedy and so going out of my depth as any given normal person can. Thiem plays the game when it gets tough, a very similar to Simona Halep.

I would like to apologize because those really are great.

But is Kristina Mladenovic already a good enough to win something..??

Stellar array of spectacular shots unrivalled elsewhere at the region.

Andreas Seppi also is a great great giving his strange Italian looks on these days Creates an interest to watch he on the court.

If facing a hanging because of this I would like face it with those infamous last words (Heil Hitler).

Heil Hitler.

I am sure I would receive a phone call if writing something too offensive. Normal people calls you if having something constructive to say. If not having, no problems at all.

No problems at all. Accidents still happens. But what I found great about Shaun Murphy is that he amongs the many others are keeping it really tight. I should had be part of that system too. Wasn´t meant to be, okay. BUT what so great about having a system like that is that when you are having a genuine smile while head to head you just know you´re having all the prospects. Shaun´s otherwise just very happy and won´t be giving you a shout if not really feeling like that he fancies it. So a tight system just awesome. Just wait that one smile and you got it. But still needs to execute.

Judd versus Jimmy would be just a tasty tought What so great about Judd is that he´s having that extreme light cueing action yet still making all the flair cannons yet still rock solid. And getting in very quickly. That´s a quite a package. What safety-game?

But everyone needs to make their own maximums. I am usually quite a perfectionist. Only then that infamous of mine "week means life" works. If it is about to work. But no need to perfectionist. It is just about trying to find your maximum amongs the balls. Making everything so well that there just aren´t any regrets. No matter if winning or losing. That´s your own maximum. Everything ACTUALLY no needs to be perfect. Just think two days forward. If now no good, tomorrow no good, BUT then.... And then when thinking about your previous honest losses while on the mood again those previous losses of yours are your lifeline. Of not starting to think you would be some kind of a world beater.

The Japanese or the Thais are really class acts when putting tall enough lads and a few lass to play. Short no good okay.

Like my experiences regarding those SHORT Thais. "Difficult coming. Way much over the time".

Yes yes, difficult coming, yes. But an alcohol also played it part.

I charge £147 for my 4 hour seminar, because it's a maximum.

Alex0paul wrote:Adrian Gunnell made 3 in 3 frames once

That cannot be true. Adrian Gunnel is just another average player.

Dan-cat wrote:I charge £147 for my 4 hour seminar, because it's a maximum.

Are your seminars on the same level as this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXytRC0k-K8

Holden Chinaski wrote:

Dan-cat wrote:I charge £147 for my 4 hour seminar, because it's a maximum.

Are your seminars on the same level as this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXytRC0k-K8

I love Ricky Gervais!
(I think we can go off-topic as mods are asleep this time of year...haha. )

The probability of two maximums in consecutive frames is currently around 1 in ten million.

There were 8 maximums last season.
There were 21 062 professional frames played.

Therefore, probability of making a maximum in the next frame is 8/ 21062 which is 0.00037983097

Assuming that making a maximum in the next frame is independent (big assumption) then the probability of two consecutive maximums is 0.00037983097 x 0.00037983097 = 0.00000014427157

Several other assumptions are made.

If anything, Smurf just too erratic for the my likening. Yes, something like this tends to happen, even during the big ones, but how is he then when it is some tournament like the Champion of Champions, the Welsh Open or the China Open time?? Limping in there, limping out there while playing the game, complaining how injured he is, still playing well but just confusing the fans looking forward seeing him to play and rubbishing the sport and fitness-levels overally.

Oh yeah, the funniest man of England. Oh yes.. He reminds a bit of some mates of mine. Yes, good lads or a good lad, surely, I know. - As long as you will have to see him or to speak with him just once in an every 10 years. Welll, Shaun´s better than that. But still slightly too erratic, me thinks.

But the chances are, you won´t be getting a look.

There were Stephen Lee and Ng On Yee who fell during the reign of Mark Selby.

But now if and quite obviously when there´s no such thing as a human comprehension. The history of Newcastle Upon Tyne or Gateshead will be written as;

1967. Paul Gascoigne borns.
2022. Paul Gascoigne comprehends a thing.
2023. Paul Gascoigne reads a book.

I could bend a bit. About that. But in order to do that, I would just like to have some sort of an explanation about those the colours of the shirts. How they always reacts so quickly. If I am having a white, that´s the dominative colour. If I am not having, it is non-existential. Really irritating, if anything. I once again state that.

So my main bets where that Egypt wins the World Cup, 201/1 and Thomas Muller will be a top goal scorer, 28/1. I covered Egypt with Germany, France, Croatia and Serbia. Tha-that´s a quite good covering, if there´s been any. Some of those to win and I would get 2/1, sounds like a good deal to me. With Egypt I would be a rich, rich man. I am just a bit too realistic, so did the covering part also. Thomas Muller I didn´t even bothered to cover.

I have heard that Salah is a player with a great influence. And that´s what I also think. Even without them they would be a tough and rather classy team. You just won´t reach the Champions League final just for nothing. There´s always the teams like FC Barcelona or FC Juventus to really make it tough to reach it. And to test your midfield. Even when they are not the best teams of the world..

I know, I know. There´s also the teams like Argentina, Spain or Brazil. For example. But Messi´s last prospects to reach it.. And remember the last efforts. How there were just Messi, and how he was outplayed. Spain´s midfield class but playing 0-0 every match and winning the whole thing? And what has changed so much during the last 4 years?

That´s the money poorly used and invested. But sometimes you just need to do that also in order to keep your spirits high. And in theory, it sounds good to me.

What else it will be than a one big tattoo show?? Just like two years ago, only worse this time. To show they got the money??

If there really is such thing as a human comprehension I would also like receive some of of an explanation regarding those mindless and thoughtless cue ball bashings in and out of the countries..(?)

Please, don´t be giving us any public explanation regarding those tattoos..... That would just too haaaarsh.

If that thought of yours regarding the tattoos isn´t valid then THINK THINK THINK. What could be the real explanation then??

Please don´t be giving us any public information regarding how all those tattooed people really think about their tattoos.... That would be just too harsh.

Please don´t be giving us any public explanation regarding those Mafia style debts. That would be just too harsh.

Please don´t be giving any critic towards those tattoos.... Of ruining their own skins at least temporarily. Please don´t give any public critics like that. Please don´t be giving any critics towards the tattooing business.

There were Stephen Lee and Ng On Yee who fell during the reign of Mark Selby and Anthony Bourdain...

TheSaviour wrote:If anything, Smurf just too erratic for the my likening. Yes, something like this tends to happen, even during the big ones, but how is he then when it is some tournament like the Champion of Champions, the Welsh Open or the China Open time?? Limping in there, limping out there while playing the game, complaining how injured he is, still playing well but just confusing the fans looking forward seeing him to play and rubbishing the sport and fitness-levels overally.

Oh yeah, the funniest man of England. Oh yes.. He reminds a bit of some mates of mine. Yes, good lads or a good lad, surely, I know. - As long as you will have to see him or to speak with him just once in an every 10 years. Welll, Shaun´s better than that. But still slightly too erratic, me thinks.

But the chances are, you won´t be getting a look.

There were Stephen Lee and Ng On Yee who fell during the reign of Mark Selby.

But now if and quite obviously when there´s no such thing as a human comprehension. The history of Newcastle Upon Tyne or Gateshead will be written as;

1967. Paul Gascoigne borns.
2022. Paul Gascoigne comprehends a thing.
2023. Paul Gascoigne reads a book.

I could bend a bit. About that. But in order to do that, I would just like to have some sort of an explanation about those the colours of the shirts. How they always reacts so quickly. If I am having a white, that´s the dominative colour. If I am not having, it is non-existential. Really irritating, if anything. I once again state that.

So my main bets where that Egypt wins the World Cup, 201/1 and Thomas Muller will be a top goal scorer, 28/1. I covered Egypt with Germany, France, Croatia and Serbia. Tha-that´s a quite good covering, if there´s been any. Some of those to win and I would get 2/1, sounds like a good deal to me. With Egypt I would be a rich, rich man. I am just a bit too realistic, so did the covering part also. Thomas Muller I didn´t even bothered to cover.

I have heard that Salah is a player with a great influence. And that´s what I also think. Even without them they would be a tough and rather classy team. You just won´t reach the Champions League final just for nothing. There´s always the teams like FC Barcelona or FC Juventus to really make it tough to reach it. And to test your midfield. Even when they are not the best teams of the world..

I know, I know. There´s also the teams like Argentina, Spain or Brazil. For example. But Messi´s last prospects to reach it.. And remember the last efforts. How there were just Messi, and how he was outplayed. Spain´s midfield class but playing 0-0 every match and winning the whole thing? And what has changed so much during the last 4 years?

That´s the money poorly used and invested. But sometimes you just need to do that also in order to keep your spirits high. And in theory, it sounds good to me.

What else it will be than a one big tattoo show?? Just like two years ago, only worse this time. To show they got the money??

If there really is such thing as a human comprehension I would also like receive some of of an explanation regarding those mindless and thoughtless cue ball bashings in and out of the countries..(?)

Please, don´t give us any public explanation regarding those tattoos..... That would just too haaaarsh.

If that thought of yours regarding the tattoos isn´t valid then THINK THINK THINK. What could be the real explanation then??

Please don´t give us any public information regarding how all those tattooed people really think about their tattoos.... That would be just too harsh.

Please don´t give us any public explanation regarding those Mafia style debts. That would be just too harsh.

Please don´t give any critic towards those tattoos.... Of ruining their own skins at least temporarily. Please don´t give any public critics like that. Please don´t give any critics towards the tattooing business.

There were Stephen Lee and Ng On Yee who fell during the reign of Mark Selby and Anthony Bourdain...

Man, your posts get crazier with each day that passes.

Badsnookerplayer wrote:The probability of two maximums in consecutive frames is currently around 1 in ten million.

There were 8 maximums last season.
There were 21 062 professional frames played.

Therefore, probability of making a maximum in the next frame is 8/ 21062 which is 0.00037983097

Assuming that making a maximum in the next frame is independent (big assumption) then the probability of two consecutive maximums is 0.00037983097 x 0.00037983097 = 0.00000014427157

Several other assumptions are made.

Nice idea to have an equation! Presumably your "one in ten million" is for either one or both players in the two frames. However, you call the assumption of the second frame not being influenced by the first, a "big assumption". It's surely too big, as players get inspired after playing a great frame of snooker!

I suggest the introduction of an "inspiration/cluster factor ("I")" into the equation: If P1 is unequal to P2 then P1*(P1*I)=Y. Where P1*I=P2

The value of "I" could be estimated by looking at the probablitity of "a century" and comparing with the probability of back to back centuries. i.e where C3=probability of back to back centuries by same player and C1=probability of a century then C3=C1*(C1*I)

Rearranging and substituting: I=(C3/C1)/C1 Therefore...Y=P1*(P1*((C3/C1)/C1)) ...where Y= probability of back to back 147's by a single player in any two frames.

(BTW I assume the stat we want is back to back 147s by the same player in one match! This should be accounted for in our calculation of "I", but could be changed if I could find an easy stat for back to back centuries regardless of the player making them.)

OK the maths is a bit complex, but based on 2017,2016 and 2015 World Championship stats. C3=(about)0.012, C1=(about)0.13 and I'll take P1= 0.00037983097

Therefore Y=0.00037983097*(0.00037983097*((0.012/0.13)/0.13))
Probability of ONE player making back to back 147s in any two frames of a pro match=0.0000001024413485="One in about 10 million"...Therefore odds of it in a season = "1 in about 500"

Wild is probably well annoyed at people who cared about this.

There's more to snooker than 147s.

I didn’t quite follow all your workings Andy. Maths was never my strong point.

One in 500? Unlikely to happen in our lifetime then, we are not even 50 years into the modern pro game.

Dan-cat wrote:I didn’t quite follow all your workings Andy. Maths was never my strong point.

One in 500? Unlikely to happen in our lifetime then, we are not even 50 years into the modern pro game.

Yes, but bear in mind the "one in 500" odds get shorter if any of the following occur...

1) The general break-building standard goes up.
2) The players are more inspired (to make a second 147) by making the innitial 147 than a century inspires them to make another century.
3) You waive the requirement for the same player to make the two 147s.
4) The number of professional frames contested in a season increases.

Andy Spark wrote:

Badsnookerplayer wrote:The probability of two maximums in consecutive frames is currently around 1 in ten million.

There were 8 maximums last season.
There were 21 062 professional frames played.

Therefore, probability of making a maximum in the next frame is 8/ 21062 which is 0.00037983097

Assuming that making a maximum in the next frame is independent (big assumption) then the probability of two consecutive maximums is 0.00037983097 x 0.00037983097 = 0.00000014427157

Several other assumptions are made.

Nice idea to have an equation! Presumably your "one in ten million" is for either one or both players in the two frames. However, you call the assumption of the second frame not being influenced by the first, a "big assumption". It's surely too big, as players get inspired after playing a great frame of snooker!

I suggest the introduction of an "inspiration/cluster factor ("I")" into the equation: If P1 is unequal to P2 then P1*(P1*I)=Y. Where P1*I=P2

The value of "I" could be estimated by looking at the probablitity of "a century" and comparing with the probability of back to back centuries. i.e where C3=probability of back to back centuries by same player and C1=probability of a century then C3=C1*(C1*I)

Rearranging and substituting: I=(C3/C1)/C1 Therefore...Y=P1*(P1*((C3/C1)/C1)) ...where Y= probability of back to back 147's by a single player in any two frames.

(BTW I assume the stat we want is back to back 147s by the same player in one match! This should be accounted for in our calculation of "I", but could be changed if I could find an easy stat for back to back centuries regardless of the player making them.)

OK the maths is a bit complex, but based on 2017,2016 and 2015 World Championship stats. C3=(about)0.012, C1=(about)0.13 and I'll take P1= 0.00037983097

Therefore Y=0.00037983097*(0.00037983097*((0.012/0.13)/0.13))
Probability of ONE player making back to back 147s in any two frames of a pro match=0.0000001024413485="One in about 10 million"...Therefore odds of it in a season = "1 in about 500"

Wow, this is very interesting

Wasn't me.

Edited.