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Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby Smart

Have been doing some research :hyper: MOONBALLERS might not want to read on ......................... :no:

The reason is that R1 is for many reasons the most exciting stage of the tourney, where most shocks happen, where most tight matches happen.....................LOVE IT. :hyper:

Using WIKI and looking in particular at progression of seeds from R1 to R2 at the Crucible. We start in 2001.

2001
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_World ... ampionship

King bt O'Brien 10-8
Wallace bt McManus 10-2
Judge bt Parrott 10-6
Small bt Fu 10-8

4 seeds did not progress

2002
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_World ... ampionship

Milkins bt O'Brien 10-8
Hann bt Hunter 10-9
Anthony Davies bt McManus 10-7
Perry bt Swail 10-6
Hamilton bt Harold 10-6

5 seeds did not progress

2003
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_World ... ampionship

Drago bt Swail 10-8
Storey by Perry 10-4
Henry bt King 10-5
Fu bt O'Sullivan 10-6

4 seeds did not progress

2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_World ... ampionship

Walker bt Lee 10-7
Hicks bt Hann 10-4
Hamilton bt Davis 10-7
Swail bt Doherty 10-5
McCulloch bt Ebdon 10-8
Pinches bt White 10-8

6 seeds did not progress

2005
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_World ... ampionship

Carter bt Fu 10-4
Murphy bt Small 10-5
Holt bt Hunter 10-8
Hamilton bt Gray 10-8
McCulloch bt Dott 10-9

5 seeds did not progress

2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_World ... ampionship

Gray bt White 10-5
Fu bt McManus 10-3
Bond bt Hendry 10-9
Robertson bt Hunter 10-5
Selby bt Higgins 10-4
Day bt Perry 10-3

6 seeds did not progress

2007
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_World ... ampionship

McCulloch bt Dott 10-7
Swail bt Williams 10-9
O'Brien bt Hawkins 10-9
Allen bt Doherty 10-7
Parrott bt Davis 10-9
Selby bt Lee 10-7

6 seeds did not progress

2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_World ... ampionship

Swail bt Lee 10-4
Wenbo bt Doherty 10-5
King bt Selby 10-8
Bingham bt Davis 10-8
Perry bt Dott 10-7

5 seeds did not progress

2009
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_World ... ampionship

Bond bt Ebdon 10-5
Cope bt Perry 10-6

2 seeds did not progress

2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_World ... ampionship

Davis bt King 10-9
Gould bt Fu 10-9
Dott bt Ebdon 10-5
MCDavis bt Day 10-8

4 seeds did not progress

:hatoff:

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby Wildey

i think the only seed to lose this year will be Mark Allen.

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby GJ

Wild wrote:i think the only seed to lose this year will be Mark Allen.



ebdon and fu as well

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby Smart

Wild wrote:i think the only seed to lose this year will be Mark Allen.


Bookies dont see it that way. Any match with odds even or close to even for both players indicates fence sitting, coin toss. The stats, kindly provided by me, prove that most years there are a number of casualties in R1. I expect 3 or 4. :hatoff:

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby Wildey

GJ wrote:
Wild wrote:i think the only seed to lose this year will be Mark Allen.



ebdon and fu as well

i think ebdon and fu will win theire first round.

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby GJ

wild

1 seed losing no chance your just moonballing

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby GJ

i picked the 3 most vulnerable seeds to lose

there are other close matches but i think the seeds will win those opening matches

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby Wildey

GJ wrote:wild

1 seed losing no chance your just moonballing


there are a few 50/50 matches there including Robbo and of course its a possibilty but my safe bet is there wont be thats why i predicted only Stevens beating Allen.

i went through each predict and until i finished i did not realise i had gone that way but thats how i see it this year.

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby Smart

Wild wrote:
GJ wrote:wild

1 seed losing no chance your just moonballing


there are a few 50/50 matches there including Robbo and of course its a possibilty but my safe bet is there wont be thats why i predicted only Stevens beating Allen.

i went through each predict and until i finished i did not realise i had gone that way but thats how i see it this year.

rofl

Funny stuff rofl

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby GJ

Ebdons form at crucible is dire last few years and odds show bookies think bingham has great chance, same with gouldy and fu match odds close

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby Smart

Non-close matches (according to bookies):

Murphy
Maguire
Selby
ROS
Higgo
Ding
Carter
Cope
Williams
Dotty

Now I think Pagett is being overlooked, despite a debutant, he practices with Williams, likes longer frame matches and I can visualise a match with MJW in R2. <ok>

Could go either way (plenty scope for seed exits):

Robbo/Trump
Fu/Gould
Allen/Stevens
Walden/McLeod
Hendo/Perry
Ebbo/Bingham

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby vodkadiet

There is always quite a big surprise, so maybe someone that everyone has predicted will win, will get knocked out.

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby PLtheRef

I think that three will go

Fu to Gould,
Ebdon to Bingham
Allen to Stevens

of those three I would say Stevens to reach the quarter-finals

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby SnookerFan

But then then the addition of the PTCs might mean everybody is more match sharp, and there's less between the top-16 and the rest then there's ever been.

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby SnookerFan

One? Hard to imagine. Just looking at the list, I see several matches that are either 50/50 and it's hard to predict, or ones where I actually make the qualifier slightly favourite. I've listed the matches where I think there's an upset possible. It's actually quite a few.

Neil Robertson vs Judd Trump, is a 50/50 match for me. I wouldn't have said that before the China Open, but now either man could beat the other. If Neil does his traditional turning up at the match 8 minutes before the game starts, or doesn't take the match seriously, he'll lose. World Champion may be favourite, but so was Murphy, Selby and Ebdon when they played Trump, and Trump beat all of them.


Marco Fu vs Martin Gould Apart from his Master's final appearance in January, Fu has done bugger all. Martin beat him last year, why not again? Martin has been playing well this year, some might make him favourite.

Graeme Dott vs Mark King Graeme Dott pretty much favourite, but as much because this is his favourite venue. Mark King was a top-16 player up until recently, so will push him hard. Possible, yet unlikely, upset.

Peter Ebdon vs Stuart Bingham Ebdon's form has been pretty grim lately, and this time last year he was dropping out of the top-16. Bingham might win, if Ebdon plays with the apathy that Ronnie did in Telford.

Stephen Hendry vs Joe Perry Joe Perry is no mug, and has been around. Hendry favourite, but very inconsistent. 50/50 match, depends who turns up on the day.

Mark Williams vs Ryan Day Clearly Mark would be a strong favourite whoever he drew, but Ryan Day is a tough first round opponent.

Mark Allen vs Matthew Stevens I pick Allen to win this, but again, Matthew has been playing well, shown form and has experience. Not totally inconceivable he'll win.

Shaun Murphy vs Marcus Campbell Okay, it's unlikely Campbell will win. I toyed with taking this out. But he has qualified for a lot, and there's an ouside chance. Which would've been a guaranteed Campbell win, if I'd taken this one out.

Ronnie O'Sullivan vs Dominic Dale People are saying Ronnie is going to kill this match, easily. But when was the last time Ronnie won a match at a ranking event? The World Open? I don't remember one since. Dale has a chance, more due to his opponent's shoddy play, then anything he's done this season.

Ricky Walden vs Rory McLeod A bit of a nothing match. A bit like Mark King vs Steve Davis last year, both men will be happy they didn't get somebody more difficult. I predict Walden to nick it, just as Rory is a bit of a bottler. But Walden has done bugger all for ages himself.

John Higgins vs Stephen Lee Same with Mark Williams. A red-hot favourite in Higgins, but it's a tough round 1 match for Hones John. I didn't think Stephen Lee would beat Mark Williams in China either.


That's 11 matches out the 16. I discarded the others as no chance, so that'll be where the qualifiers win from the first round come from, the ones I haven't mentioned. rofl

The qualifiers won't win all the matches I stated obviously, those were just matches that I wouldn't feel 100% confident in my pick if I picked the top-16. Some I'd be more comfortable with others, but I think the challengers all have a chance there. Let's just say we half it, and round down. That still brings us to six. I reckon we'll see more then 1 seed fall, definitely.

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby onlyevertonjon

Good research has gone into this

Slightly different this year as in I think a few more form players are seeded with the rolling ranking.

Surprised no-one has said Ronnie. If Dale keeps that close at the first session we could see an upset there.

I think there will be 3-4 non seeds going through, not sure who, but I think there closer matches there than the bookies crack on. Williams and Higgins are in a tough draws.

The seed I am most confident about going through is Mark Selby.

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby Bourne

I've calculated that there is a 91.6% chance of there being FIVE seeds losing in R1 this year.

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby Wildey

believe me Hendry v Perry is 99/1 hendry

50/50 is a joke <doh>

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby Wildey

Bourne wrote:Hendy :limp:

whatever

im not going to lose sleep over perrys non chance thats for sure <ok>

Re: Seeds progressing from R1 to R2

Postby SnookerFan

onlyevertonjon wrote:
Surprised no-one has said Ronnie. If Dale keeps that close at the first session we could see an upset there.


Nobody? :wave: